Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:33:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d06…3aac other 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6 (-5%) realized −$3 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%10W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$5
sports 7% −$8
finance 2% +$1
politics 1% +$4
tech 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -16.6% -24.6% 37% 37% -14.4%
≤30d 28 -19.6% -27.3% 36% 36% -15.9%
≤90d 28 -19.6% -27.3% 36% 36% -15.9%
all 28 -19.6% -27.3% 36% 36% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 36% -15.9%
10% -34.2% 32% -24.0%
15% -40.6% 32% -31.3%
20% -46.4% 25% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses10 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)28 / 43
History coverage7d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $16 $20 +$4 (+22%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Yes 15¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+150%)
Will Japan be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Under 60¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 26¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Will Sweden score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-74%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-55%)
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will Spain be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +124%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2 +$1 +48%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$3 +291%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +57%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $1 +$2 +155%
Will England be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -84%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 $0 -48%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +342%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 60¢ $1 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Up 56¢ $1 25h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 27h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 3d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 4d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 92¢ $3 4d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 35¢ $1 5d
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 5d
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 26¢ $1 5d
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will England be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes $0 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 5d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.68 · official $62.70 (match) · 63 history records