Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:45:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d06…43b0 crypto 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$49 · open +$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +23.8% +12.1% 46% 46% -19.3%
≤30d 13 +23.8% +12.1% 46% 46% -19.3%
≤90d 13 +23.8% +12.1% 46% 46% -19.3%
all 13 +23.8% +12.1% 46% 46% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.1% 46% -19.3%
10% +1.3% 46% -27.0%
15% -8.5% 46% -34.1%
20% -17.4% 46% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +123% → late -61% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$37 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 10¢ 50¢ $11 $54 +$43 (+395%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 21 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$45 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$30 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $79 +$68 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$11 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$40 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$17 +331%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.76 · official $53.76 (match) · 38 history records