Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:01:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

5D 0x5d02…fdb6 sports 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

Total PnL +$10 (+5%) realized +$10 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip

Net edge+34%after slip

Net WR41%break-even

Win rate41%11W / 16L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$7per market

Trades / day3.6pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit55%portable

Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$19

7 days+$1

14 days+$1

30 days+$1

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +41%

net ROI/market (all)+39.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	27	+53.6%	+39.0%	41%	41%	-8.9%
≤30d	27	+53.6%	+39.0%	41%	41%	-8.9%
≤90d	27	+53.6%	+39.0%	41%	41%	-8.9%
all	27	+53.6%	+39.0%	41%	41%	-8.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+39.0%	41%	-8.9%
10%	+25.7%	41%	-17.7%
15%	+13.6%	37%	-25.6%
20%	+2.4%	26%	-32.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +54% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +93% → late +17% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.01 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$27

Realized+$10

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)41%

Wins / losses11 / 16

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)27 / 29

History coverage8d

Avg bet$7

Trades / day3.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 27 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	61¢	62¢	$25	$25	+$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Yes	23¢	20¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-11%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	Jun 21	$2	−$2	-94%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 21	$2	−$2	-94%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 21	$2	+$15	+698%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	Jun 21	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Jun 21	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$21	+$10	+46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$21	+$13	+64%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 20	$8	−$8	-100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$4	+$3	+70%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	Jun 18	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$9	+$3	+34%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 18	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	Jun 18	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$4	+$6	+131%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$1	+$4	+422%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 17	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 17	$2	−$2	-100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 17	$2	−$2	-100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$3	+$1	+42%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 17	$2	+$6	+292%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 15	$21	−$21	-100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 15	$6	−$6	-100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 15	$21	−$21	-100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$1	+$13	+1201%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 15	$21	+$10	+49%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	61¢	$26	1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$2	14h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$2	14h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$2	23h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	SELL Yes	89¢	$17	24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$21	41h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$21	41h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	10¢	$2	41h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	17¢	$5	2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$2	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	56¢	$4	2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$2	2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$9	4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$8	4d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	BUY Yes	31¢	$2	4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	41¢	$4	4d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$2	4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	25¢	$2	4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	18¢	$1	4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	13¢	$1	6d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$2	6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$3	6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	68¢	$2	6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	54¢	$2	6d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$2	6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	7¢	$1	6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	4¢	$6	7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	64¢	$21	8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	82¢	$21	8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$21	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.99 · official $26.99 (match) · 54 history records