Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:07:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5D 0x5d00…8dd7 crypto 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$47 (+4%) realized +$48 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate47%28W / 31L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$30
14 days+$30
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$95
sports 44% −$42
crypto 7% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -18.8% -26.5% 32% 32% -6.7%
≤30d 33 -15.2% -23.3% 36% 36% -6.4%
≤90d 59 -9.8% -18.4% 47% 34% -6.5%
all 59 -9.8% -18.4% 47% 34% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 34% -6.5%
10% -26.2% 29% -15.4%
15% -33.3% 22% -23.6%
20% -39.9% 19% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized+$48
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses28 / 31
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 61
History coverage65d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $59 −$2 -3%
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? Jun 20 $38 +$21 +57%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $39 −$1 -3%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $40 −$2 -4%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $95 −$1 -1%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $6 −$1 -19%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $122 +$38 +31%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $125 −$4 -3%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $60 +$42 +70%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $20 +$4 +20%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $58 +$36 +62%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$5 -52%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 −$1 -6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $12 −$1 -5%
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $15 −$1 -8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 +$2 +109%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $8 +$3 +34%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +29%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 −$3 -62%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $64 +$49 +77%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: April May 28 $6 +$1 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 28 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 18 $3 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 18 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 16 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 16 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Apr 16 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 16 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 16 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 1h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 30¢ $57 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 67¢ $57 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $59 1h
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 1h
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? BUY Yes 63¢ $38 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 SELL Over 68¢ $38 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $39 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 58¢ $39 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $95 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 0.5 SELL Over 87¢ $95 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $95 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $40 13h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 13h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 13h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 13h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 13h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 13h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 13h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 76¢ $122 19h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 87¢ $122 19h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $125 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $102 20h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $24 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $60 22h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $20 22h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $5 22h
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 22h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.98 · official $73.98 (match) · 140 history records