Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:14:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5C 0x5cff…83c4 sports 997 markets active 1h ago coverage 256d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 255d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,282 (+2%) realized +$2,282 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate69%688W / 309L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$88est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 256d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$1,914
other 17% −$1,455
weather 2% −$933
world 0% +$10
tech 0% +$3
politics 0% +$6
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -34.0% -40.3% 46% 38% -9.0%
≤30d 82 +3.6% -6.2% 65% 49% -10.5%
≤90d 330 +5.3% -4.7% 72% 57% -10.6%
all 997 -0.7% -10.2% 69% 41% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 41% -12.7%
10% -18.8% 31% -21.1%
15% -26.6% 22% -28.7%
20% -33.8% 13% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$38 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,282
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses688 / 309
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$88
Open positions0
Markets (closed)997 / 997
History coverage256d ⚠
Avg bet$121
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 997 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Anouk Koevermans vs Mananchaya Sawangkae Jun 23 $117 +$5 +4%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Iryna Shymanovich Jun 23 $94 −$5 -6%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Tamara Korpatsc Jun 23 $14 −$14 -100%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 23 $23 −$7 -32%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 23 $27 −$19 -70%
Mallorca Championships: Damir Dzumhur vs Vit Kopriva Jun 23 $35 +$17 +49%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $16 +$8 +52%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Valentin Royer Jun 22 $16 +$4 +25%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $162 +$21 +13%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $80 +$25 +31%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Anastasia Jun 21 $11 −$4 -38%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7 +$3 +43%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $12 +$8 +70%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $148 +$16 +11%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Mimi Xu vs Elsa Jacquemot Jun 20 $125 +$3 +2%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Aoi Ito Jun 20 $18 +$4 +23%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $8 +$8 +93%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $315 +$4 +1%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $8 $0 -1%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $98 +$3 +3%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 16 $190 +$10 +5%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $111 +$7 +6%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 15 $11 $0 +3%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $14 $0 -2%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $33 +$11 +34%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 +$17 +250%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $16 +$3 +22%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $9 $0 -1%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 14 $10 +$3 +30%
Ilkley: Oliver Tarvet vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $27 +$8 +28%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $9 +$5 +57%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $7 −$2 -28%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $87 +$3 +4%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 12 $8 +$4 +50%
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 12 $200 +$1 +0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $50 +$30 +60%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $55 +$10 +17%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $26 +$14 +51%
Ilkley: Alex Bolt vs Keegan Smith Jun 10 $36 +$3 +10%
Ilkley: Hamish Stewart vs Leandro Riedi Jun 10 $7 $0 +0%
Ilkley: Luca Nardi vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 10 $8 +$4 +49%
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra Jun 10 $9 +$5 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Iryna Shymanovich SELL Iryna Shymanovich 100¢ $100 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Anouk Koevermans vs Mananchaya Sawangkae SELL Mananchaya Sawangkaew 100¢ $105 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Iryna Shymanovich BUY Iryna Shymanovich 89¢ $4 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Iryna Shymanovich BUY Iryna Shymanovich 89¢ $53 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Iryna Shymanovich BUY Iryna Shymanovich 89¢ $27 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Iryna Shymanovich BUY Iryna Shymanovich 89¢ $4 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Iryna Shymanovich BUY Dominika Salkova 54¢ $3 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Iryna Shymanovich BUY Dominika Salkova 54¢ $3 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Anouk Koevermans vs Mananchaya Sawangkae BUY Mananchaya Sawangkaew 93¢ $93 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Anouk Koevermans vs Mananchaya Sawangkae BUY Mananchaya Sawangkaew 55¢ $1 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Anouk Koevermans vs Mananchaya Sawangkae BUY Mananchaya Sawangkaew 55¢ $2 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Anouk Koevermans vs Mananchaya Sawangkae BUY Anouk Koevermans 77¢ $9 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Anouk Koevermans vs Mananchaya Sawangkae SELL Anouk Koevermans 68¢ $16 2h
Mallorca Championships: Damir Dzumhur vs Vit Kopriva SELL Vit Kopriva 100¢ $52 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Anouk Koevermans vs Mananchaya Sawangkae BUY Anouk Koevermans 47¢ $11 2h
Mallorca Championships: Damir Dzumhur vs Vit Kopriva BUY Vit Kopriva 67¢ $20 3h
Mallorca Championships: Damir Dzumhur vs Vit Kopriva BUY Vit Kopriva 67¢ $15 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 100¢ $24 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 65¢ $16 7h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 67¢ $16 7h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Valentin Royer SELL Ethan Quinn 84¢ $20 27h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider SELL Clara Tauson 100¢ $180 27h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Clara Tauson 86¢ $34 27h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Clara Tauson 86¢ $86 27h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider SELL Diana Shnaider 10¢ $4 27h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 30¢ $5 28h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Clara Tauson 51¢ $21 28h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Valentin Royer BUY Ethan Quinn 67¢ $3 31h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Valentin Royer BUY Ethan Quinn 67¢ $9 32h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Valentin Royer BUY Ethan Quinn 67¢ $2 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records