Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:30:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5C 0x5cfd…ca1b other 594 markets active 0h ago coverage 386d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5,593 (-3%) realized −$5,827 · open +$234
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate64%366W / 208L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$314per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$172est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$9,581now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$412
14 days+$120
30 days+$1,775
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% +$599
other 31% −$6,135
sports 20% +$486
politics 5% −$1,930
tech 4% +$71
finance 4% +$544
economics 2% −$96
culture 1% +$164
crypto 1% +$450
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -20.0% -27.6% 47% 32% -15.8%
≤30d 45 -16.4% -24.3% 51% 40% -5.1%
≤90d 180 +7.7% -2.5% 59% 42% -7.1%
all 574 -4.3% -13.4% 64% 42% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 42% -12.7%
10% -21.7% 26% -21.1%
15% -29.3% 20% -28.7%
20% -36.2% 14% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$151 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

386d coverage
Net worth$9,581
Realized−$5,827
Unrealized+$234
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses366 / 208
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$172
Open positions16
Markets (closed)574 / 594
History coverage386d
Avg bet$314
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 574 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 85¢ 88¢ $2,000 $2,059 +$59 (+3%)
Özgür Özel arrested by June 30? No 90¢ 97¢ $1,000 $1,076 +$76 (+8%)
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $1,000 $1,023 +$23 (+2%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $1,000 $1,016 +$16 (+2%)
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $1,000 $996 −$4 (-0%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $1,000 $993 −$7 (-1%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 85¢ 99¢ $700 $812 +$112 (+16%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 88¢ $566 $548 −$18 (-3%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 84¢ $400 $393 −$7 (-2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 97¢ $200 $204 +$4 (+2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 62¢ 100¢ $100 $161 +$61 (+61%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $190 $135 −$55 (-29%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $41 $31 −$10 (-25%)
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals Yes 30¢ 26¢ $30 $26 −$5 (-15%)
Antoine Semenyo: 3+ shots Yes 55¢ 50¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 125 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $204 −$37 -18%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$210 +206%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 17 $100 +$46 +46%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $300 +$2 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $1,001 +$16 +2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$76 -75%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $522 −$309 -59%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$89 -87%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $304 +$188 +62%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $501 +$34 +7%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,006 +$224 +22%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $503 −$500 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 +$66 +65%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $606 +$289 +48%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 10 $2,007 −$152 -8%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 08 $507 −$500 -99%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $1,018 +$963 +95%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 07 $503 +$113 +22%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 05 $1,003 +$108 +11%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $200 +$41 +20%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $250 +$16 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $300 +$53 +18%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $10,000 +$22 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $201 +$24 +12%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $500 −$207 -41%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? May 28 $95 −$95 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Mary Stoiana May 23 $803 +$91 +11%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $112 +$13 +12%
Will Middlesbrough achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the May 19 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 19 $11,849 +$2,169 +18%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 19 $100 +$25 +25%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Alex Molcan vs Oliver Crawford May 19 $170 +$129 +76%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Grigor Dimitrov May 19 $102 +$249 +244%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $100 −$21 -21%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 19 $48 −$48 -100%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? May 19 $90 −$21 -24%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $200 −$185 -92%
Hamburg European Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Ignacio Buse May 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Bulgaria win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 18 $52 +$211 +406%
Geneva Open: Valentin Royer vs Francisco Comesana May 18 $102 +$221 +216%
Geneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Thiago Agustin Tirante May 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 34¢ $167 19m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 31¢ $102 32m
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $31 1h
Antoine Semenyo: 3+ shots BUY Yes 55¢ $20 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $204 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $1,009 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $146 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 88¢ $302 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $102 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $30 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 30¢ $51 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $201 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $25 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $8 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain $13 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 38¢ $205 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 36¢ $102 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 25¢ $102 2d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $57 3d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $44 3d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 3d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,580.69 · official $9,680.69 · 1520 history records