Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:36:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5cfc…fe75 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$1 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -66% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -72% what you keep after slip
Net edge-72%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-69.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -65.9% -69.2% 33% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 3 -65.9% -69.2% 33% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 3 -65.9% -69.2% 33% 0% -10.0%
all 3 -65.9% -69.2% 33% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -69.2% 0% -10.0%
10% -72.1% 0% -18.6%
15% -74.8% 0% -26.5%
20% -77.3% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -66% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)3 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? No 99¢ 98¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 88¢ 88¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 61¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 87¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 18 $146 +$3 +2%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.40 · official $150.40 (match) · 11 history records