Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:51:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5cfc…e8cc sports 94 markets active 9h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$34 (+2%) realized +$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate39%33W / 52L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day23.3pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$211
other 12% −$2
crypto 7% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -2.4% -11.7% 39% 34% +3.0%
≤30d 85 -2.4% -11.7% 39% 34% +3.0%
≤90d 85 -2.4% -11.7% 39% 34% +3.0%
all 85 -2.4% -11.7% 39% 34% +3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 34% +3.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 28% -6.8%
15% -27.8% 24% -15.8%
20% -34.9% 18% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$3 · ×3.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.24 per $1 lost it wins $2.24
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses33 / 52
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions0
Markets (closed)85 / 94
History coverage6d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day23.3
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 85 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $20 −$11 -52%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 +$13 +127%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $964 +$173 +18%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +43%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$10 +473%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 +$32 +3136%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +22%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $14 +$21 +149%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$3 +109%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +149%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 -8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -8%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -4%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 21¢ $15 9h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 11¢ $31 18h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 18h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 19h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 21¢ $10 21h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 21h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 21h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 21h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 22h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 23h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 31h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15 BUY 17¢ $10 46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15 BUY 6¢ $2 46h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 15¢ $1 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 11¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 26¢ $51 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL 35¢ $64 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 27¢ $51 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL 35¢ $63 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 27¢ $51 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL 35¢ $69 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 25¢ $51 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL 35¢ $69 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 25¢ $51 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL 35¢ $78 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 20¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 22¢ $51 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL 17¢ $115 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 222 history records