Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:45:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5cfc…6e8e crypto 88 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (179 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$657 (-6%) realized −$664 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate49%42W / 44L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day179.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,033
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (179 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -16.1% -24.1% 49% 43% -17.8%
≤30d 86 -16.1% -24.1% 49% 43% -17.8%
≤90d 86 -16.1% -24.1% 49% 43% -17.8%
all 86 -16.1% -24.1% 49% 43% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover179.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.1% 43% -17.8%
10% ← realistic here -31.4% 34% -25.6%
15% -38.0% 23% -32.8%
20% -44.1% 16% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$74 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized−$664
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses42 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)86 / 88
History coverage4d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day179.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Up 95¢ 100¢ $80 $83 +$4 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Up 78¢ 84¢ $39 $42 +$3 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $79 −$33 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $39 +$19 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $80 −$78 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $35 +$29 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $40 −$39 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 20 $40 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 20 $79 +$16 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $40 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $262 −$71 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 20 $22 +$10 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $182 +$44 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 19 $618 +$252 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $1,010 −$996 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $488 −$476 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $13 +$7 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $141 −$138 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$19 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $523 +$184 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 18 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $146 −$146 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $169 −$169 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $172 −$172 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $23 +$15 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $120 +$81 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $224 +$72 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $257 +$123 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $401 +$38 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $714 +$369 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $305 +$54 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $187 +$47 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$10 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$8 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $39 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $80 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $39 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $80 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $40 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $39 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $39 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $40 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $35 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $40 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $22 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $18 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $18 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $18 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $16 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $16 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $15 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $15 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $15 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $14 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $14 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $12 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.42 · official $84.13 · 829 history records