Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:04:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5cf8…3a61 crypto 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (85 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$56 (-4%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate82%18W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day85.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (85 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -1.7% -11.0% 82% 5% -13.2%
≤30d 22 -1.7% -11.0% 82% 5% -13.2%
≤90d 22 -1.7% -11.0% 82% 5% -13.2%
all 22 -1.7% -11.0% 82% 5% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover85.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 5% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 5% -21.5%
15% -27.3% 5% -29.1%
20% -34.5% 5% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$21 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses18 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day85.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 24 $87 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $108 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $63 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $29 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 24 $193 +$6 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 24 $131 +$4 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $106 −$3 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 24 $88 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 24 $124 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 24 $87 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 24 $11 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 24 $199 −$60 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 24 $58 −$19 -33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 24 $69 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $22 −$2 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $3 +$3 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $9 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $26 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $28 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $41 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $53 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $24 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $75 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $22 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $9 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $23 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $26 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $17 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $27 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $24 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $20 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $19 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records