Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:46:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5C 0x5cf6…20d7 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$2,605 (+32%) realized +$1,848 · open +$757
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$917per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$6,057now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$2,099
crypto 31% +$906
sports 7% −$253
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +17.0% +5.9% 50% 50% +55.3%
≤30d 4 +17.0% +5.9% 50% 50% +55.3%
≤90d 4 +17.0% +5.9% 50% 50% +55.3%
all 4 +17.0% +5.9% 50% 50% +55.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.9% 50% +55.3%
10% -4.2% 50% +40.4%
15% -13.5% 50% +26.8%
20% -22.0% 25% +14.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +72% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +72% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,373 vs −$375 · ×3.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.66 per $1 lost it wins $3.66
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$6,057
Realized+$1,848
Unrealized+$757
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions5
Markets (closed)4 / 9
History coverage3d
Avg bet$917
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $2,500 $3,406 +$906 (+36%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1,000 $958 −$42 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1,000 $912 −$88 (-9%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $500 $484 −$16 (-3%)
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,010 +$421 +42%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $257 −$250 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,026 +$2,324 +226%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $513 −$500 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $304 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 96¢ $1,431 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $257 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $513 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $1,026 47h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $513 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1,028 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $1,028 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $2,572 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,057.41 · official $6,063.41 (match) · 14 history records