Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:39:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5cf6…4793 other 264 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$79 (-0%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%8W / 255L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$14
14 days−$23
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$36
sports 26% −$22
politics 8% −$6
crypto 7% −$7
culture 7% −$7
economics 6% −$6
world 5% −$4
tech 1% +$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 62 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 185 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 263 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses8 / 255
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)263 / 264
History coverage137d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 263 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $61 $61 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $409 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $627 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $152 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $461 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $377 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $424 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $404 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $712 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $182 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $208 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $681 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $217 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $291 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $429 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $710 −$2 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $196 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $337 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $168 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $63 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $790 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $257 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $234 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $371 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $130 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $214 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $538 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $321 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $341 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $371 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $136 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $139 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $443 −$2 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $257 $0 +0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 31 $179 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $948 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 30 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 29 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 29 $401 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 29 $143 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 1h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $61 1h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $61 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $61 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $61 10h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $61 11h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $61 12h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 13h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 15h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 17h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $61 19h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $61 23h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $61 25h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 26h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $62 28h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 29h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $62 30h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $62 38h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 39h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $62 42h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $62 44h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $62 45h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 46h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $62 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $62 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $62 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $62 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.83 · official $60.83 (match) · 1351 history records