Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:54:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5cf3…43ab other 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$341 (-23%) realized −$339 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%7W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$29
sports 30% −$412
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +1.1% -8.5% 21% 21% -33.7%
≤30d 33 +1.1% -8.5% 21% 21% -33.7%
≤90d 33 +1.1% -8.5% 21% 21% -33.7%
all 33 +1.1% -8.5% 21% 21% -33.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 21% -33.7%
10% -17.3% 21% -40.0%
15% -25.3% 21% -45.8%
20% -32.6% 18% -51.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$38 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$339
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses7 / 26
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage7d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $51 −$27 -53%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $14 +$68 +473%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $49 −$48 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$42 -41%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $40 −$39 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 −$28 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $21 +$133 +650%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $101 +$88 +86%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $21 +$31 +149%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $71 +$34 +48%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 +$201 +980%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $7 −$1 -8%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $92 −$90 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $151 −$149 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 +$51 +51%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 5¢ $24 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $51 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 3h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 100¢ $82 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 18¢ $46 5h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 19¢ $3 5h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 5h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 17¢ $14 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 19¢ $102 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 8¢ $41 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 5¢ $61 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 4¢ $40 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $29 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $10 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 25¢ $31 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 11¢ $41 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 3d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 21¢ $51 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 3d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $104 3d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 100¢ $222 3d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $25 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.21 · official $19.64 · 50 history records