Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:38:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5C 0x5cf0…cad2 sports 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 217d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$357 (+16%) realized +$409 · open −$52
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%18W / 15L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$109
7 days+$147
14 days+$206
30 days+$206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$170
other 21% +$135
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -1.7% -11.1% 52% 52% -0.8%
≤30d 30 +0.3% -9.2% 53% 53% +1.9%
≤90d 30 +0.3% -9.2% 53% 53% +1.9%
all 33 +4.0% -5.9% 55% 55% +7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 55% +7.2%
10% -14.9% 55% -3.1%
15% -23.1% 45% -12.4%
20% -30.7% 42% -21.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$35 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

217d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$409
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses18 / 15
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage217d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 61¢ 29¢ $100 $48 −$52 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $91 +$26 +28%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $351 +$126 +36%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $129 −$27 -21%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $26 −$26 -99%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$8 +76%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +109%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $16 +$14 +86%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $22 −$22 -99%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $40 +$21 +52%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$18 +344%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 +$33 +64%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $245 +$128 +52%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $203 −$202 -99%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $10 +$14 +133%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $29 −$29 -98%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $31 +$39 +127%
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $60 +$18 +29%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $40 +$26 +64%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$123 +121%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $99 +$59 +59%
Lions vs. Eagles Nov 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Chiefs vs. Broncos Nov 17 $41 +$59 +144%
Commanders vs. Dolphins Nov 16 $199 +$156 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 61¢ $101 1m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $34 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $30 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 78¢ $83 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $30 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $30 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 75¢ $48 13h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 73¢ $101 13h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 73¢ $101 13h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 72¢ $101 13h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $27 14h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 47¢ $110 14h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $102 15h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $26 18h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $18 18h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 18h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 18h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $5 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $16 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 53¢ $22 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $61 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $40 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.54 · official $50.00 · 69 history records