Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:02:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5C 0x5ced…2c7e other 114 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,662 (-22%) realized −$3,661 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate42%45W / 63L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$195
7 days+$353
14 days+$474
30 days−$1,986
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$147
world 32% −$3,305
sports 5% −$872
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +39.4% +26.2% 55% 40% -1.1%
≤30d 76 -12.8% -21.1% 34% 26% -28.7%
≤90d 108 -12.4% -20.7% 42% 27% -31.9%
all 108 -12.4% -20.7% 42% 27% -31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 27% -31.9%
10% -28.3% 18% -38.4%
15% -35.2% 14% -44.4%
20% -41.6% 12% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -34% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$96 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$221
Realized−$3,661
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses45 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)108 / 114
History coverage82d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 9¢ 16¢ $50 $84 +$34 (+69%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $22 $33 +$11 (+51%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $24 $28 +$4 (+16%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+5%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $65 $13 −$52 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $21 −$5 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $117 +$36 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $32 +$4 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $31 +$53 +170%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $330 +$20 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $44 +$40 +91%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $198 −$14 -7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $901 +$14 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $37 +$52 +143%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $136 −$83 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $31 +$39 +125%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $56 −$23 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $561 +$88 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $371 +$119 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $902 +$82 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $15 −$2 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 09 $82 +$9 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $79 −$23 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 09 $238 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 09 $31 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $220 +$187 +85%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 08 $9 −$1 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 06 $21 −$16 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 06 $26 −$23 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $45 +$27 +61%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $185 +$94 +51%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $50 −$8 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $137 +$141 +103%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 03 $63 −$4 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $167 −$167 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $31 +$169 +547%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $49 −$15 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 30 $43 −$4 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $16 −$3 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 29 $31 −$12 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 29 $31 −$5 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $129 +$61 +47%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $37 +$4 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $16 59m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $115 59m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $42 2h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $36 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $32 3h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $3 3h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $4 3h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 3h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 3h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $40 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 12h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $25 15h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $23 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 16h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 16h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $101 16h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $52 17h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $103 17h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $95 18h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 22h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 22h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 22h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $101 23h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $31 23h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $102 23h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $35 27h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $23 34h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $901 35h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $89 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.97 · official $220.97 (match) · 509 history records