Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:35:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5cec…7c61 sports 1060 markets active 2d ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 111d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,263 (-9%) realized −$2,088 · open −$175
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%557W / 479L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day21.9pace
Fees−$78est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$300now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$17
sports 40% −$628
other 8% +$445
politics 6% +$572
crypto 3% −$794
finance 1% −$41
economics 1% −$46
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +17.0% +5.9% 61% 39% -6.2%
≤30d 220 +7.6% -2.7% 56% 44% -9.3%
≤90d 813 -1.3% -10.7% 54% 47% -10.0%
all 1036 -2.2% -11.5% 54% 46% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 46% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 41% -19.2%
15% -27.7% 38% -27.0%
20% -34.8% 34% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$15 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$300
Realized−$2,088
Unrealized−$175
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses557 / 479
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$78
Open positions23
Markets (closed)1036 / 1060
History coverage111d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day21.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 1036 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $149 $158 +$10 (+6%)
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Yes $10 $29 +$19 (+188%)
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $11 $15 +$4 (+35%)
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $16 $13 −$3 (-18%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $11 $12 +$1 (+10%)
Will Baltimore Ravens win the 2026 AFC North? Yes 56¢ 46¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-18%)
Will Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Yes $12 $9 −$3 (-22%)
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2026 NFC North? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Will Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Yes $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Yes $10 $4 −$6 (-58%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 11¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-27%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes $9 $2 −$7 (-74%)
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-28%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes $41 $2 −$40 (-96%)
Will Minnesota Twins win the 2026 AL Central title? Yes $5 $1 −$4 (-78%)
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026? No 94¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 61¢ $119 $0 −$119 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 27¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 15 $3 −$1 -28%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$21 +414%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $17 +$18 +102%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $13 +$2 +16%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -35%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 13 $66 +$1 +2%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $5 $0 -4%
Trump out as President before GTA VI? Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 13 $19 +$3 +18%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +7%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$25 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$7 +44%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 03 $4 +$5 +134%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $5 +$3 +67%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 03 $5 +$4 +83%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 03 $5 +$6 +119%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $794 −$781 -98%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 03 $10 $0 -2%
Will Aaron Rodgers retire before next season? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -89%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $15 +$40 +274%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 02 $5 −$5 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics Jun 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? Jun 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Jun 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros Jun 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 32¢ $2 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $16 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end BUY 19¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $11 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-1 BUY 55¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $10 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $2 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $15 4d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ $15 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $10 4d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $2 4d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $4 4d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 61¢ $5 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $5 4d
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $16 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 69¢ $5 4d
Trump out as President before GTA VI? SELL No 49¢ $5 4d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $6 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $23 4d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL No 77¢ $23 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $7 4d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $8 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $6 4d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $6 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $299.81 · official $299.83 (match) · 3500 history records