Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:35:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5ce9…3b13 other 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate38%25W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$3
other 30% +$1
politics 18% −$2
tech 5% $0
sports 1% −$7
weather 1% +$1
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 +0.8% -8.8% 27% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 24 +0.0% -9.5% 29% 0% -9.7%
all 66 -4.3% -13.4% 38% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 2% -9.9%
10% -21.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -29.3% 0% -26.4%
20% -36.2% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses25 / 41
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage491d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $71 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $74 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $125 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $77 −$1 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $86 −$2 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $8 $0 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $18 +$1 +7%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 27 $106 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 25 $106 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 22 $96 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 17 $64 −$2 -3%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $274 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 13 $19 −$1 -6%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $92 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $71 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 11 $302 +$1 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $302 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Dec 29 $6 $0 +2%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Jul 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 24 $5 $0 +2%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jul 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4? Jul 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 01 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $5 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $2 $0 +3%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia before June? May 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 16–23? May 19 $5 $0 +2%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend May 18 $5 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? May 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108000 and $110000 on May 16? May 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? May 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Pacers vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 16 $5 $0 -2%
Will Portugal finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 15 $6 $0 -3%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9–16? May 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? May 10 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $35 2h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $36 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $36 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $35 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $35 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $39 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $39 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $2 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $33 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $35 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 49¢ $19 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 49¢ $17 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $37 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 89¢ $41 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $43 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $39 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $23 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $17 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 179 history records