Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:11:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5ce7…bc9a other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 217d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate26%10W / 28L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$336per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$8
other 21% −$28
tech 9% +$32
finance 8% −$2
sports 7% −$3
crypto 7% −$3
economics 6% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +4.8% -5.2% 100% 0% -5.2%
≤30d 7 +0.8% -8.8% 29% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 24 +0.2% -9.4% 17% 0% -9.6%
all 38 -0.4% -9.9% 26% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 3% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 3% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 3% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$570) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

217d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage217d
Avg bet$336
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 25 $106 +$5 +5%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $105 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $103 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $106 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $105 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $104 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $105 +$2 +2%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $894 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 18 $895 −$3 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 18 $900 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $902 −$2 -0%
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 18 $904 −$3 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $907 −$3 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $910 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 02 $112 +$1 +0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 20 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $570 −$1 -0%
Will La U win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Re Apr 19 $571 −$2 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $572 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 14 $72 +$1 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 17 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)? Mar 17 $73 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 17 $73 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 17 $73 $0 +0%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 17 $73 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 01 $73 $0 -0%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Feb 20 $206 $0 -0%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026? Feb 20 $73 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 20 $68 +$5 +7%
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale? Feb 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Feb 01 $66 +$2 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 18 $61 +$6 +10%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 23 $23 +$14 +61%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Dec 01 $23 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $111 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $106 13d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $105 13d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $105 14d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $103 14d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $103 14d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $106 14d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $106 14d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $105 14d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $105 14d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $104 14d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $104 14d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 98¢ $105 35d
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $893 38d
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $894 38d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? SELL No 98¢ $892 38d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 98¢ $895 38d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 99¢ $898 38d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $900 38d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $900 38d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $902 38d
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $901 38d
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $904 38d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $905 38d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $907 38d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $908 38d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $910 38d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 99¢ $112 63d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $566 66d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $567 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 83 history records