Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:42:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5C 0x5ce5…64d8 other 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 604d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$78 (+0%) realized +$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate23%16W / 53L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$288per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 69% −$14
other 14% +$29
politics 13% −$8
sports 2% +$69
crypto 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 +8.3% -2.0% 11% 6% -8.6%
≤90d 56 +9.9% -0.6% 23% 16% -7.7%
all 69 +8.0% -2.3% 23% 13% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 13% -9.2%
10% -11.7% 13% -17.9%
15% -20.2% 13% -25.8%
20% -28.0% 12% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$2 · ×5.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

604d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized+$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses16 / 53
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)69 / 71
History coverage604d
Avg bet$288
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $106 $106 +$0 (+0%)
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $37 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $32 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $302 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $32 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $25 $0 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $8 +$11 +152%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $32 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $34 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $21 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $35 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 02 $64 $0 +1%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $29 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 30 $23 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $168 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $33 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $151 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $150 $0 -0%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 18 $12 +$17 +152%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $132 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $143 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $19 +$8 +44%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $126 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $127 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $254 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 26 $130 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $265 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $131 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 25 $126 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $389 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $135 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 23 $249 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $134 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $136 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $132 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $128 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $260 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $129 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $133 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $9 $0 +0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $13 +$10 +72%
Bucks vs. Nets Apr 08 $14 −$14 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $14 +$14 +104%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Sabres vs. Senators Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Hawks vs. Celtics Apr 02 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 02 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $37 16h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $37 18h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $106 26h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 4d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 5d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 6d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 6d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 7d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 8d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 8d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Washington Nationals 39¢ $8 8d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $32 11d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $32 11d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 13d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $21 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $21 13d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $35 14d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $19 15d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 15d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $29 16d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 16d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? SELL No 100¢ $23 17d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? BUY No 100¢ $23 17d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.58 · official $138.58 (match) · 285 history records