Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:33:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5C 0x5ce4…bbe7 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$71 (-4%) realized −$17 · open −$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$450now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$127
crypto 30% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-52.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -47.0% -52.1% 25% 25% -15.4%
≤30d 4 -47.0% -52.1% 25% 25% -15.4%
≤90d 4 -47.0% -52.1% 25% 25% -15.4%
all 4 -47.0% -52.1% 25% 25% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.1% 25% -15.4%
10% -56.6% 0% -23.5%
15% -60.8% 0% -30.9%
20% -64.7% 0% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$45 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$450
Realized−$17
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$236
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 38¢ $414 $238 −$176 (-43%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 14¢ 36¢ $80 $203 +$123 (+154%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 87¢ 84¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $500 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $502 +$60 +12%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $86 −$84 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $14 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $82 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $404 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $500 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 100¢ $500 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 15h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $60 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $502 25h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $450.47 · official $450.47 (match) · 11 history records