Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:23:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5C
0x5ce3…f779
sports · 401 markets active 1h ago
5.0score
+$3,290 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,475 · open +$815
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15,223
Realized+$2,475
Unrealized+$815
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses214 / 136
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions50
Markets (closed)350 / 401
History coverage564d
Avg bet$504
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 50 History 350 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days+$381
14 days+$1,063
30 days+$1,504
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026? No 87¢ 92¢ $3,931 $4,157 +$226 (+6%)
Will the Republican Party win the VA-06 House seat? Yes 64¢ 74¢ $2,166 $2,487 +$321 (+15%)
Will The Clearing Company self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 97¢ $1,244 $1,303 +$59 (+5%)
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026? No 79¢ 82¢ $1,174 $1,221 +$47 (+4%)
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling? No 64¢ 81¢ $920 $1,164 +$243 (+26%)
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? No 92¢ 92¢ $1,093 $1,098 +$5 (+0%)
Will Cboe Futures Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $608 $632 +$24 (+4%)
Will Florida use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? Yes 81¢ 86¢ $418 $443 +$24 (+6%)
Will ForecastEx self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 88¢ $337 $356 +$19 (+6%)
Will Maryland use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No 90¢ 92¢ $249 $256 +$6 (+3%)
Will Louisiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? Yes 86¢ 92¢ $194 $208 +$15 (+8%)
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? Yes 72¢ 56¢ $218 $168 −$50 (-23%)
Will the Republican Party win the FL-02 House seat? Yes 70¢ 84¢ $123 $148 +$25 (+20%)
Will the Republican Party win the TX-38 House seat? Yes 79¢ 82¢ $139 $145 +$6 (+4%)
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-23 House seat? Yes 85¢ 66¢ $156 $121 −$35 (-23%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 77¢ $112 $116 +$3 (+3%)
Will the Republican Party win the TX-21 House seat? Yes 80¢ 76¢ $120 $114 −$6 (-5%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 75¢ $105 $112 +$8 (+7%)
Will the Republican Party win the FL-05 House seat? Yes 75¢ 86¢ $93 $107 +$14 (+15%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 45¢ 36¢ $121 $98 −$23 (-19%)
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 54¢ $78 $81 +$3 (+4%)
Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat? Yes 71¢ 64¢ $89 $80 −$9 (-10%)
Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? No 53¢ 53¢ $65 $64 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 37¢ $60 $56 −$4 (-8%)
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 37¢ $64 $56 −$9 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $407 +$14 +4%
Will Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States mi Jun 14 $1,061 +$35 +3%
Will Canada finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 12 $6 +$1 +20%
Will Ohio use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midte Jun 12 $153 +$14 +9%
Will La-Z-Boy (LZB) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 11 $28 −$3 -10%
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $327 +$97 +30%
FDA approves Ionis' Olezarsen? Jun 09 $260 +$10 +4%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $131 −$6 -4%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $42 +$20 +47%
Will Intercontinental Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by Jun 09 $336 +$50 +15%
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 through 4 games? Jun 08 $17 −$16 -98%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $450 $0 +0%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 07 $740 +$165 +22%
Will Josh Hart score 40+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $49 +$2 +5%
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States m Jun 05 $92 +$18 +20%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 04 $132 $0 -0%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 04 $244 +$7 +3%
Will Railbird self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $1,227 +$660 +54%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 04 $1,889 −$7 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 02 $88 −$10 -11%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $55 +$2 +4%
Will Trump say "Goat" in May? Jun 02 $59 +$6 +11%
Will Trump say "Mouse" in May? Jun 02 $18 +$2 +12%
Will Trump say "Chicken" in May? Jun 02 $4 +$1 +13%
Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $3.75B and $4 May 30 $3 $0 +4%
Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $2.75B and $3 May 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: March May 28 $891 −$314 -35%
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midte May 28 $37 −$30 -82%
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Sen May 27 $977 +$817 +84%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $4,062 +$84 +2%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 21 $156 −$103 -66%
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $362 +$48 +13%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $104 +$47 +46%
NBA: SGA Award Parlay May 19 $89 −$89 -100%
PGA Championship: Hole in One? May 18 $31 +$28 +91%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $84 +$16 +18%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 17 $3,150 −$58 -2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 16 $11 +$4 +41%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 May 16 $220 +$5 +2%
Will LedgerX self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? May 14 $966 +$1,756 +182%
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? May 08 $747 −$707 -95%
Will North Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United St May 05 $80 +$9 +11%
Will California use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States May 05 $33 +$3 +9%
Will Texas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midt May 05 $48 +$3 +6%
Chirayu Rana fired? May 01 $316 −$87 -27%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? May 01 $168 −$1 -0%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $89 +$11 +12%
Kash Patel out by May 31? Apr 30 $75 +$3 +4%
Will the Chicago Mercantile Exchange self-certify sports event contrac Apr 30 $274 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 45% +$6,383
politics 34% −$2,548
sports 12% −$2,407
crypto 3% +$137
tech 3% +$2,039
world 2% −$292
economics 1% +$56
finance 0% +$12
culture 0% −$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? BUY No 94¢ $111 40m
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? BUY No 93¢ $51 53m
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? BUY No 93¢ $68 54m
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? BUY No 88¢ $11 1h
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? BUY No 93¢ $80 1h
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $421 1h
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? BUY No 89¢ $156 1h
Will Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States mi SELL No 93¢ $157 1h
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? BUY No 93¢ $19 6h
Will any player score 50+ points in any game during the 2026 NBA Final SELL No 100¢ $13 8h
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? BUY No 91¢ $26 14h
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? BUY No 91¢ $38 15h
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? BUY No 92¢ $120 17h
Will Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States mi SELL No 94¢ $166 17h
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? BUY No 92¢ $46 18h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA SELL No 71¢ $10 27h
Will Canada finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group SELL Yes 33¢ $7 27h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA BUY No 70¢ $11 27h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 28h
Will Canada finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 27¢ $6 28h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA BUY No 53¢ $24 28h
Will Florida use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States mi BUY Yes 82¢ $357 45h
Will Ohio use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midte SELL Yes 94¢ $168 45h
Will the Republican Party win the VA-06 House seat? BUY Yes 81¢ $100 45h
Will Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States mi SELL No 94¢ $380 45h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Wi BUY 65¢ $43 45h
Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $5 45h
Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $5 2d
Will La-Z-Boy (LZB) beat quarterly earnings? SELL Yes 64¢ $24 2d
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $39 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +3.0% -6.8% 69% 38% -0.8%
≤30d 40 +0.8% -8.8% 68% 40% -2.0%
≤90d 108 +19.8% +8.4% 67% 39% +3.8%
all 350 +1.3% -8.3% 61% 37% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 37% -8.3%
10% -17.1% 23% -17.1%
15% -25.1% 17% -25.1%
20% -32.5% 12% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,222.77 · official $15,265.23 (match) · 3147 history records