Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:54:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5ce3…2979 sports 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 369d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$595 (-10%) realized −$556 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate24%29W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$29
14 days−$29
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$90
other 11% −$140
crypto 7% −$281
politics 4% −$86
world 2% −$25
economics 1% −$21
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-45.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -19.7% -27.4% 0% 0% -27.4%
≤30d 2 -59.9% -63.7% 0% 0% -32.7%
≤90d 11 -27.9% -34.8% 27% 18% -27.6%
all 121 -39.2% -45.0% 24% 19% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.0% 19% -19.0%
10% -50.2% 17% -26.8%
15% -55.0% 10% -33.8%
20% -59.5% 7% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$13 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

369d coverage
Net worth$207
Realized−$556
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses29 / 92
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 123
History coverage369d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 85¢ 72¢ $246 $207 −$39 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $149 −$29 -20%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? May 27 $109 −$19 -18%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 09 $179 +$16 +9%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? Apr 07 $24 −$1 -2%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs GAM Esports (BO3) - LCP Regular Season Apr 05 $25 +$10 +40%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $12 +$13 +114%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Apr 04 $180 −$18 -10%
Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 241.5 Apr 04 $104 −$104 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DN Freecs - Game 1 Winner Apr 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Apr 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 04 $36 −$13 -37%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 20 $669 +$33 +5%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DN Freecs (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 20 $1,056 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 20 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 20 $15 −$3 -20%
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Feb 20 $243 −$243 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1PM ET Feb 20 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Team Secret Whales - Game 1 Winn Feb 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Feb 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 20 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: DN Freecs vs DRX - Game 3 Winner Feb 20 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Valorant: G2 Gozen vs GIANTX GC (BO3) - VCT Game Changers EMEA Playoff Feb 19 $38 +$2 +5%
LoL: DN Freecs vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 19 $541 +$139 +26%
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Feb 14 $27 +$8 +30%
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 14 $208 $0 -0%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - LCP P Feb 14 $50 −$14 -28%
LoL: Ground Zero Gaming vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Feb 13 $34 +$58 +170%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Feb 01 $91 +$47 +52%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Feb 01 $379 +$50 +13%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Over $40M committed to the VOOI public sale? Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
League of Legends: Gen.G vs. G2 Feb 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 20? Feb 01 $11 +$35 +316%
Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 31? Feb 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 25? Feb 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 January 12-18? Feb 01 $6 −$6 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026? Feb 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump meet with Putin by November 30? Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 27? Feb 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? Feb 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Feb 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 January 12-18? Feb 01 $22 −$15 -71%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 26? Feb 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Feb 01 $11 −$11 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 25? Feb 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Feb 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on November 20? Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Unbelievable" or "Fantastic" or "Incredible" 10+ times Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 5? Feb 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 2¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $34 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $213 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 59¢ $120 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 72¢ $149 6d
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 24d
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? SELL Yes 18¢ $20 27d
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $18 27d
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 33d
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? SELL Yes 18¢ $54 38d
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $52 38d
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $15 42d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 57¢ $88 42d
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $22 42d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 57¢ $22 42d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 57¢ $86 43d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 56¢ $86 45d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 47¢ $76 45d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 46¢ $17 45d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? SELL $80k 38¢ $24 74d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? BUY $80k 39¢ $24 74d
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs GAM Esports (BO3) - LCP Regular Season BUY Team Secret Whales 71¢ $25 76d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 46¢ $12 77d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL Yes 1¢ $12 77d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY Yes 1¢ $14 78d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY Yes 2¢ $8 83d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL Yes 3¢ $11 87d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY Yes 4¢ $14 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 102d
Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 241.5 BUY Under 52¢ $104 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $207.35 · official $208.72 (match) · 368 history records