Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:18:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
5C 0x5cdf…1d29 sports 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 190d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,801 (-18%) realized −$2,801 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%29W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days+$82
14 days+$82
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$2,737
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +150.0% +126.2% 100% 100% +126.2%
≤30d 3 +56.2% +41.3% 67% 67% -20.2%
≤90d 16 -0.5% -9.9% 50% 50% -27.3%
all 70 -6.7% -15.6% 41% 41% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 41% -25.2%
10% -23.7% 41% -32.3%
15% -31.0% 41% -38.9%
20% -37.8% 37% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$237 vs −$234 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

190d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized−$2,801
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses29 / 41
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage190d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $56 +$82 +147%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+2.5) Jun 08 $320 −$316 -99%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 08 $146 +$173 +119%
LeBron James: Points O/U 21.5 May 09 $342 −$338 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 09 $150 +$192 +129%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 09 $249 −$245 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 09 $154 +$95 +62%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 08 $159 −$156 -98%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 02 $226 −$222 -98%
Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 9.5 May 02 $117 +$109 +93%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs South America Rejects (BO5) - DreamLeague Divi May 01 $182 −$180 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 01 $160 −$157 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Apr 29 $343 +$142 +41%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Apr 29 $244 +$101 +41%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 29 $251 −$7 -3%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Apr 29 $154 +$92 +60%
Lakers vs. Bulls Jan 27 $109 −$109 -100%
Rockets vs. 76ers Jan 23 $361 −$361 -100%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs AVULUS (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Play Jan 22 $360 −$360 -100%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs AVULUS - Game 2 Winner Jan 22 $626 −$626 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance Jan 22 $275 +$351 +128%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jan 22 $198 +$77 +39%
Thunder vs. Bucks Jan 22 $158 −$158 -100%
Spurs vs. Rockets Jan 20 $252 −$252 -100%
Dota 2: (monkey) Business vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - EPL Championship Pl Jan 20 $431 −$431 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Western Europe Jan 20 $216 +$215 +100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Jan 20 $180 −$180 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Passion UA (BO3) Jan 14 $281 −$281 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) Jan 14 $329 −$329 -100%
Hawks vs. Lakers Jan 14 $211 −$211 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) Jan 13 $223 −$223 -100%
Hornets vs. Clippers Jan 13 $334 +$187 +56%
Celtics vs. Pacers Jan 13 $114 +$220 +194%
Dota 2: Trailer Park Boys vs Kukuys (BO3) Jan 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jan 12 $212 −$212 -100%
Counter-Strike: Brute vs HyperSpirit (BO3) Jan 12 $176 −$176 -100%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Aurora (BO3) Jan 12 $167 −$167 -100%
Thunder vs. Grizzlies Jan 12 $245 −$245 -100%
Bucks vs. Warriors Jan 12 $211 −$211 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) Jan 12 $613 −$613 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) Jan 12 $321 −$321 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jan 12 $140 +$181 +129%
Clippers vs. Pistons Jan 11 $210 +$237 +113%
Mavericks vs. Jazz Jan 09 $245 +$368 +150%
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs MANA eSports (BO3) Jan 08 $175 +$150 +85%
Hong Kong Tennis Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jan 06 $248 +$126 +51%
Dota 2: yache123 vs Veroja (BO5) Jan 06 $65 −$65 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-8.5) Jan 06 $177 +$170 +96%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jan 03 $175 −$175 -100%
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers Jan 03 $130 −$130 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $56 1h
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+2.5) BUY Anyones Legend 68¢ $320 19d
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 45¢ $146 20d
LeBron James: Points O/U 21.5 BUY Yes 56¢ $2 49d
LeBron James: Points O/U 21.5 BUY Yes 56¢ $340 49d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY 9z 43¢ $150 49d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Nongshim Red Force 51¢ $249 49d
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL BNK FEARX 100¢ $249 49d
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY BNK FEARX 61¢ $154 49d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY JD Gaming 32¢ $159 50d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Weibo Gaming 44¢ $226 56d
Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 9.5 BUY No 51¢ $117 57d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs South America Rejects (BO5) - DreamLeague Divi BUY Nigma Galaxy 55¢ $156 57d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs South America Rejects (BO5) - DreamLeague Divi BUY Nigma Galaxy 52¢ $5 57d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs South America Rejects (BO5) - DreamLeague Divi BUY Nigma Galaxy 52¢ $11 57d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs South America Rejects (BO5) - DreamLeague Divi BUY Nigma Galaxy 52¢ $10 57d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY T1 42¢ $160 57d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $485 59d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 70¢ $343 59d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $345 59d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 70¢ $2 59d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 70¢ $242 59d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL T1 77¢ $244 59d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY T1 78¢ $4 59d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY T1 78¢ $5 59d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY T1 78¢ $242 59d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 SELL Under 100¢ $246 59d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 BUY Under 62¢ $40 59d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 BUY Under 63¢ $101 59d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 BUY Under 54¢ $12 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.95 · official $136.95 (match) · 143 history records