Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:37:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5cdd…5058 sports 186 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%9W / 177L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$6
politics 20% −$3
other 19% −$3
economics 10% −$1
crypto 9% −$2
world 7% −$1
culture 7% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.6% -11.0% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 4 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 5 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 186 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses9 / 177
Open positions0
Markets (closed)186 / 186
History coverage161d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 186 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $26 $0 -2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $25 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $140 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 23 $25 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 13 $23 −$1 -3%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 12 $37 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 12 $233 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $65 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Mar 12 $26 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $36 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 10 $29 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 10 $137 $0 +0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 10 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 10 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 09 $64 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 08 $33 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 08 $32 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 07 $72 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 07 $50 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 07 $160 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 06 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 06 $62 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $261 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 03 $28 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 03 $177 $0 -0%
Will Hassan Rouhani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 02 $25 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $27 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Mar 01 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 01 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 01 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 01 $127 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 28 $155 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 28 $105 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 28 $59 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 28 $133 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 28 $73 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 27 $25 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 27 $75 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 27 $76 $0 -0%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Feb 26 $29 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 26 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 26 $197 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 26 $74 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 23 $337 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $26 1h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $26 5h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $25 14d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $25 14d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $31 21d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $31 22d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $25 29d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 97¢ $25 29d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $24 37d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $24 37d
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 91¢ $23 100d
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 94¢ $23 101d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL Yes 94¢ $36 101d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY Yes 95¢ $37 101d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $29 101d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $29 101d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $30 101d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $30 101d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 93¢ $26 101d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 93¢ $7 102d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 93¢ $20 102d
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 96¢ $32 102d
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 98¢ $32 102d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $27 102d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $27 102d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $36 102d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $36 102d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $29 102d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $29 103d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 96¢ $25 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 744 history records