Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:17:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5cd9…51d0 sports 923 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,042 (-9%) realized −$6,042 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%367W / 551L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$131est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$74
7 days−$173
14 days−$173
30 days−$2,856
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$4,000
other 21% −$1,165
crypto 17% −$1,312
world 0% +$241
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +12.6% +1.9% 43% 43% -38.7%
≤30d 80 -34.2% -40.5% 26% 26% -50.8%
≤90d 110 -27.9% -34.7% 29% 29% -42.2%
all 918 -5.3% -14.3% 40% 39% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 39% -18.0%
10% -22.5% 38% -25.9%
15% -30.0% 37% -33.0%
20% -36.9% 36% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$72 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,042
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses367 / 551
Est. fees paid−$131
Open positions0
Markets (closed)918 / 923
History coverage149d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 918 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 29 $54 −$52 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 29 $32 +$23 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$57 +227%
Fortaleza EC vs. SC Recife: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $51 +$74 +145%
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $227 −$127 -56%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$99 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $58 −$58 -100%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $98 −$98 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $116 −$116 -100%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $81 −$81 -100%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $299 −$299 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $50 +$154 +307%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 +$40 +80%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $122 +$131 +108%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $84 −$55 -66%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $41 +$48 +118%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $28 −$28 -100%
Panama vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Australia vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Albania vs. Luxembourg: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Liechtenstein win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Qatar vs. El Salvador: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $56 −$56 -100%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $99 −$99 -100%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $143 −$143 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $48 −$3 -6%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $41 −$8 -19%
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $71 +$72 +101%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $76 +$87 +114%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $51 +$44 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Russia vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Canada vs. Republic of Ireland: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Benin vs. Niger: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Georgia vs. Bahrain: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $102 −$102 -100%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $51 +$51 +101%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $41 +$80 +197%
Haiti vs. Peru: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $51 +$97 +191%
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $41 +$67 +166%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $55 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $83 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $25 2h
Fortaleza EC vs. SC Recife: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $125 2h
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Goiás EC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $50 4h
Fortaleza EC vs. SC Recife: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $51 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 18¢ $101 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 39¢ $227 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? AND BUY 26¢ $114 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $101 3d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Ecu BUY 17¢ $44 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 32¢ $50 15d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $26 15d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Wil BUY 16¢ $26 15d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $51 15d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Qat BUY 10¢ $51 15d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $50 16d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $41 16d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 43¢ $91 16d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $11 16d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $116 17d
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 30¢ $98 18d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $81 18d
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 23¢ $58 20d
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $299 21d
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $102 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $111.53 · 2098 history records