trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 25 | -31.1% | -37.7% | 16% | 16% | -20.7% |
| ≤30d | 25 | -31.1% | -37.7% | 16% | 16% | -20.7% |
| ≤90d | 25 | -31.1% | -37.7% | 16% | 16% | -20.7% |
| all | 25 | -31.1% | -37.7% | 16% | 16% | -20.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -37.7% | 16% | -20.7% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -43.6% | 16% | -28.3% |
| 15% | -49.1% | 8% | -35.3% |
| 20% | -54.1% | 4% | -41.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? | Yes | 46¢ | 50¢ | $248 | $270 | +$21 (+9%) |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 26¢ | 24¢ | $68 | $62 | −$6 (-9%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 7¢ | 7¢ | $6 | $6 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison? | Yes | 14¢ | 12¢ | $3 | $2 | −$0 (-12%) |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 26, 2026? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+47%) |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-76%) |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 25, 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 2¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-44%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Wheels divorce by June 30? | Jun 23 | $21 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on | Jun 23 | $20 | −$5 | -23% |
| Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31? | Jun 23 | $2 | $0 | -19% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | Jun 23 | $9 | −$1 | -8% |
| Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | Jun 23 | $28 | −$1 | -3% |
| SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? | Jun 23 | $10 | −$3 | -26% |
| GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? | Jun 23 | $1 | +$1 | +66% |
| Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? | Jun 23 | $1 | $0 | -15% |
| SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026? | Jun 23 | $93 | −$3 | -3% |
| Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? | Jun 23 | $24 | −$14 | -58% |
| Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? | Jun 23 | $16 | +$4 | +27% |
| Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? | Jun 23 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET | Jun 23 | $4 | $0 | -0% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET | Jun 23 | $1 | $0 | +36% |
| BNB Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET | Jun 23 | $1 | −$1 | -95% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET | Jun 22 | $1 | −$1 | -95% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET | Jun 22 | $1 | −$1 | -94% |
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? | Jun 22 | $6 | −$1 | -11% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET | Jun 22 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET | Jun 22 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET | Jun 22 | $1 | $0 | -2% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET | Jun 22 | $2 | −$1 | -36% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET | Jun 22 | $1 | $0 | +32% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET | Jun 22 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET | Jun 22 | $1 | $0 | -30% |