Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5C 0x5cd7…7842 crypto 323 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,037 (+7%) realized +$9,107 · open −$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%120W / 192L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$396per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$888now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$24
14 days−$24
30 days−$586
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% +$7,027
politics 20% −$229
world 16% +$84
other 11% +$1,483
sports 2% −$142
economics 0% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +3.5% -6.3% 40% 30% -10.6%
≤30d 220 +6.2% -4.0% 38% 34% -13.4%
≤90d 222 +5.2% -4.8% 37% 33% -13.8%
all 312 +1.8% -7.9% 38% 31% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 31% -3.4%
10% -16.7% 25% -12.6%
15% -24.8% 21% -21.1%
20% -32.2% 18% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$290 vs −$138 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$888
Realized+$9,107
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses120 / 192
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions11
Markets (closed)312 / 323
History coverage159d
Avg bet$396
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 312 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Over 28¢ 26¢ $268 $244 −$24 (-9%)
Brazil to score first vs. Scotland? Yes 83¢ 69¢ $200 $168 −$32 (-16%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 42¢ $95 $92 −$3 (-3%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $87 $85 −$2 (-2%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 30¢ 28¢ $66 $63 −$3 (-5%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $60 $57 −$3 (-6%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? No 37¢ 38¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Germany 20¢ 18¢ $22 $20 −$2 (-7%)
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Japan 17¢ 16¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-9%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Over 35¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 145 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $45 +$215 +474%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $151 −$16 -11%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $103 −$57 -56%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 16 $102 −$8 -8%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $56 −$54 -97%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $102 −$9 -9%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $101 +$10 +10%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $53 −$52 -97%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 +$123 +121%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $102 +$8 +8%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $95 −$78 -82%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $151 +$70 +46%
Scotland to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 15 $101 −$95 -94%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $69 −$43 -63%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $179 +$121 +67%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$94 +92%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $132 +$97 +74%
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 14 $202 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 25 $143 −$140 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 25 $52 +$45 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 25 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 25 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 25 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 25 $52 +$45 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 25 $122 +$41 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 25 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 25 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 25 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 25 $323 +$55 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 25 $271 +$74 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 25 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 25 $156 −$50 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 25 $153 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 25 $158 +$41 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 25 $310 −$137 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 25 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 25 $155 −$32 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 25 $208 +$39 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 25 $155 +$45 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 25 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 24 $102 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 24 $158 +$45 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 24 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 24 $103 +$25 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 24 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 24 $105 −$43 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 24 $104 −$100 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $89 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 42¢ $89 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 30¢ $68 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $193 3h
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? SELL Yes 99¢ $0 15h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 17¢ $45 15h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 7¢ $45 15h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $1 16h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $274 16h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 16h
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? SELL Yes 69¢ $135 16h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) SELL Austria 24¢ $94 17h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $56 17h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 32¢ $20 17h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 64¢ $111 17h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 34¢ $73 17h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $53 17h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 17h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 37¢ $51 17h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 17h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 18h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 25¢ $102 18h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 57¢ $101 18h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $102 18h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 88¢ $225 19h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 23¢ $97 19h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 23¢ $14 19h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 6¢ $17 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $222 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $887.69 · official $887.74 (match) · 1950 history records