Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:44:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5C 0x5cd5…e3aa weather 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%80W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 46% +$1
crypto 35% +$2
other 8% $0
tech 6% +$2
world 3% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 78 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 80 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.2%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses80 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage119d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 24 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C or below on May 12? May 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on May 11? May 22 $16 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on May 11? May 22 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C or higher on May 12? May 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 31°C on May 12? May 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 12? May 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C or below on May 12? May 22 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 6? May 11 $153 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 20? May 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 11°C on April 21? May 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on April 21? May 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 12°C on April 21? May 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 21? May 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on April 20? May 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 21? May 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on April 21? May 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on April 21? May 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on April 21? May 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 20? May 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C or below on April 21? May 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 20? May 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on April 20? May 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or higher on April 21? May 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 20? May 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 21? May 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 21? May 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 22? May 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 22? May 03 $29 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on April 17? Apr 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 15? Apr 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 16? Apr 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 15? Apr 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 16? Apr 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or higher on April 16? Apr 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 16? Apr 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on April 16 Apr 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on April 16? Apr 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C or below on April 16? Apr 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 55°F or below on April Apr 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 16? Apr 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on April 16? Apr 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 58-59°F on Apri Apr 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 15? Apr 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 15? Apr 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or below on April 16? Apr 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on April 16 Apr 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 41°F or below on April 16? Apr 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 56-57°F on Apri Apr 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 16? Apr 20 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $54 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $53 33d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $19 44d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $16 44d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C or below on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $13 44d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C or higher on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $22 44d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 31°C on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $22 44d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $29 44d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C or below on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $32 44d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $153 51d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $16 65d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 12°C on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $11 65d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 11°C on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $11 65d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $22 65d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or higher on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $23 65d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $11 65d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $22 65d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $13 65d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $22 65d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $11 65d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $22 65d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $22 65d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $23 65d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $21 65d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C or below on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $22 65d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $23 65d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 65d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 22? BUY No 99¢ $29 65d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 65d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.47 · official $53.47 (match) · 161 history records