Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:39:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5C 0x5cd4…f794 sports 67 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate91%59W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$26
14 days−$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$19
other 24% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -3.0% -12.2% 86% 10% -11.8%
≤30d 65 +1.7% -8.0% 91% 18% -9.4%
≤90d 65 +1.7% -8.0% 91% 18% -9.4%
all 65 +1.7% -8.0% 91% 18% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 18% -9.4%
10% -16.8% 6% -18.0%
15% -24.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$12 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses59 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)65 / 67
History coverage15d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Claremont: Vignesh Gogineni vs Kenta Miyoshi Vignesh Gogineni 96¢ 100¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+4%)
ITF Claremont: Brooke Kwon vs Alexis Nguyen Alexis Nguyen 98¢ 100¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Claremont: Aidan Kim vs Hiroki Sakagawa Jun 25 $15 $0 +1%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $30 $0 -1%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $27 +$3 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $58 +$2 +3%
Piracicaba: Lucas Da Silva vs Conner Huertas Del Pino Jun 25 $29 +$1 +2%
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Duje Ajdukovic Jun 25 $29 +$1 +3%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Tristan Boyer Jun 25 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $7 $0 +2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $29 +$1 +5%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 25 $29 +$1 +5%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 25 $28 +$2 +6%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 25 $14 +$1 +6%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 25 $29 +$1 +5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $11 +$4 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $56 +$4 +7%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $48 +$2 +4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $19 +$1 +3%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mariam Bolkvadze vs Hayu Kinoshita Jun 24 $29 +$1 +2%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 24 $28 −$28 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Jil Teichmann Jun 24 $51 $0 -0%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Mai Hontama Jun 24 $29 +$1 +4%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $29 +$1 +2%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 24 $48 −$16 -32%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $19 +$1 +5%
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Kozyreva/Piter vs Haverlag/Lumsden Jun 23 $19 +$1 +3%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mai Hontama vs Akasha Urhobo Jun 23 $20 $0 +2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 23 $19 +$1 +6%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Carole Monnet vs Tatiana Prozorova Jun 23 $19 +$1 +5%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 23 $19 +$1 +4%
Targu Mures: Luca Castelnuovo vs Franco Agamenone Jun 22 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $17 +$3 +15%
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez Jun 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 20 $19 +$1 +7%
Nottingham Open: Emma Navarro vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 20 $19 +$1 +4%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 19 $20 $0 +2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $19 +$1 +4%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $18 +$2 +10%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $19 +$1 +6%
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro Jun 19 $19 +$1 +5%
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide Jun 19 $19 +$1 +6%
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 18 $18 +$2 +14%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $19 +$1 +6%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 18 $18 +$2 +11%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin Jun 18 $18 +$2 +10%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $16 +$4 +23%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $9 +$1 +9%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif Jun 18 $9 +$1 +11%
ITF Irvine: Vit Kalina vs Marcel Latak Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Claremont: Vignesh Gogineni vs Kenta Miyoshi BUY Vignesh Gogineni 96¢ $29 21m
ITF Claremont: Brooke Kwon vs Alexis Nguyen BUY Alexis Nguyen 98¢ $23 38m
ITF Claremont: Aidan Kim vs Hiroki Sakagawa BUY Aidan Kim 99¢ $15 55m
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 96¢ $29 1h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants $2 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $27 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $58 1h
Piracicaba: Lucas Da Silva vs Conner Huertas Del Pino BUY Lucas Da Silva 98¢ $29 7h
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Duje Ajdukovic BUY Sumit Nagal 97¢ $21 7h
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Duje Ajdukovic BUY Sumit Nagal 97¢ $8 7h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Tristan Boyer BUY Tristan Boyer 97¢ $29 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 95¢ $29 21h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 98¢ $7 21h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 94¢ $14 21h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 95¢ $29 21h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 94¢ $28 21h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 95¢ $29 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 97¢ $19 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $11 27h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 96¢ $19 27h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 96¢ $29 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 93¢ $56 27h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mariam Bolkvadze vs Hayu Kinoshita BUY Mariam Bolkvadze 98¢ $29 28h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Jil Teichmann BUY Bianca Andreescu 97¢ $29 29h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 98¢ $29 29h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Mai Hontama BUY Ashlyn Krueger 96¢ $29 29h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Jil Teichmann SELL Bianca Andreescu 69¢ $21 29h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Jil Teichmann BUY Bianca Andreescu 71¢ $21 29h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 92¢ $28 47h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 10¢ $2 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.41 · official $53.41 (match) · 148 history records