Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:08:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5C 0x5cd4…5416 other 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$76 (-9%) realized −$75 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$111
sports 3% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -16.1% -24.1% 33% 0% -28.1%
≤30d 5 -15.2% -23.2% 20% 0% -27.5%
≤90d 5 -15.2% -23.2% 20% 0% -27.5%
all 5 -15.2% -23.2% 20% 0% -27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 0% -27.5%
10% -30.6% 0% -34.5%
15% -37.3% 0% -40.8%
20% -43.4% 0% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$29 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized−$75
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage9d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $148 $146 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $172 +$3 +2%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$2 -15%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $266 −$94 -35%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$1 -9%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $103 −$19 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $130 25m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 54¢ $148 29m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $174 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 87¢ $175 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 85¢ $172 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $9 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 38¢ $173 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $266 21h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $14 9d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 12¢ $83 9d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 9d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.24 · official $146.24 (match) · 13 history records