Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:47:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

5C 0x5cd3…e427 other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$164 (+3%) realized +$166 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip

Net edge-7%after slip

Net WR68%break-even

Win rate80%20W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$177per market

Trades / day5.5pace

Fees−$8est.

Kalshi-fit46%portable

Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +68%

net ROI/market (all)-3.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	25	+7.2%	-3.0%	80%	68%	-6.9%
≤30d	25	+7.2%	-3.0%	80%	68%	-6.9%
≤90d	25	+7.2%	-3.0%	80%	68%	-6.9%
all	25	+7.2%	-3.0%	80%	68%	-6.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.5 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-3.0%	68%	-6.9%
10%	-12.3%	56%	-15.8%
15%	-20.8%	28%	-24.0%
20%	-28.6%	8%	-31.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

15% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +7% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +10% → late +5% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$39 vs −$130 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.21 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$148

Realized+$166

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)80%

Wins / losses20 / 5

Est. fees paid−$8

Open positions3

Markets (closed)25 / 28

History coverage6d

Avg bet$177

Trades / day5.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 25 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	Over	76¢	78¢	$50	$51	+$1 (+2%)
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 0.5	Over	79¢	78¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5	Over	84¢	80¢	$50	$47	−$3 (-5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$801	+$32	+4%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 0.5	Jun 22	$599	+$79	+13%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$100	+$23	+23%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$301	+$36	+12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$55	−$54	-98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 0.5	Jun 20	$404	+$12	+3%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$101	−$1	-1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$66	+$41	+62%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5	Jun 19	$48	+$12	+26%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$157	+$48	+31%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$50	−$50	-99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$51	+$29	+57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$50	+$15	+29%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$76	+$37	+49%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$302	+$109	+36%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 0.5	Jun 18	$148	+$16	+11%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5	Jun 18	$151	+$52	+34%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$449	−$447	-100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$164	+$65	+40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$151	+$69	+46%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$152	+$11	+7%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$123	+$30	+24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$101	+$50	+50%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$99	+$24	+24%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 0.5	BUY Over	79¢	$50	56m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	76¢	$50	57m
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5	BUY Over	84¢	$50	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	95¢	$832	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$801	4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	85¢	$123	5h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 0.5	BUY Over	88¢	$599	8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$100	10h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$55	2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 0.5	BUY Over	97¢	$404	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$301	3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	79¢	$99	3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	79¢	$101	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$66	3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5	BUY Over	79¢	$48	4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	71¢	$50	4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	76¢	$157	4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$51	4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	77¢	$50	4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	82¢	$113	4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	54¢	$76	4d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 0.5	BUY Over	90¢	$148	4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	73¢	$302	4d
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5	BUY Over	74¢	$151	5d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	69¢	$101	5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	92¢	$229	5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$221	5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$164	5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	93¢	$152	5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$50	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.68 · official $147.68 (match) · 51 history records