Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:22:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5C
0x5ccf…79d7
world · 135 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$19,595 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$14,572 · open +$325
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$12,783
Realized+$14,572
Unrealized+$325
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses84 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Open positions11
Markets (closed)124 / 135
Avg bet$3,156
Trades / day182.3
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 11 History 124 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6,862
7 days+$7,232
14 days+$4,720
30 days+$14,572
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $3,996 $3,998 +$2 (+0%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 97¢ 98¢ $3,886 $3,934 +$48 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $1,220 $1,540 +$320 (+26%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 33¢ 40¢ $990 $1,185 +$195 (+20%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $893 $827 −$67 (-7%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $579 $577 −$2 (-0%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? No 91¢ 95¢ $455 $475 +$20 (+4%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 67¢ 81¢ $152 $184 +$32 (+21%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country? Yes 22¢ 3¢ $244 $39 −$205 (-84%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? No 92¢ 97¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+6%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $24 $6 −$18 (-75%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $294 $0 −$294 (-100%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 12? No 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $3,329 +$78 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $10,873 +$1,314 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $3,470 +$2,452 +71%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 11 $3,038 −$58 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1,630 +$60 +4%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $5,190 −$181 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $13,138 +$1,387 +11%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $4,688 +$11 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $4,072 +$149 +4%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $1,737 +$464 +27%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $3,186 −$317 -10%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 10 $4,934 −$45 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $890 +$173 +19%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Jun 10 $333 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 10 $24,571 +$1,374 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elon Musk by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $170 −$143 -84%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $3,014 −$304 -10%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $1,513 +$110 +7%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $223 +$1 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $2,608 +$71 +3%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026? Jun 09 $317 +$3 +1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1,485 +$16 +1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $83 +$1 +1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2,719 +$170 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 09 $601 −$63 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 09 $1,083 +$21 +2%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $7,596 +$344 +4%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 09 $375 +$60 +16%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $945 +$55 +6%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $1,690 +$174 +10%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $22 +$11 +52%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $7 −$1 -10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $46 +$10 +22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $331 −$31 -9%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 08 $377 +$23 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $1,332 −$19 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $75 +$3 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $1,020 −$56 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $532 +$56 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $1,004 −$36 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 07 $3,619 +$95 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $22 +$8 +38%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 07 $2,453 +$177 +7%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $6 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Fuel" during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $220 +$2 +1%
Will Trump's remarks not air? Jun 05 $1,046 +$1 +0%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" in June? Jun 05 $137 −$49 -36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $6,500 −$351 -5%
Will Trump say "Cocaine" in June? Jun 05 $334 +$7 +2%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 05 $660 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 81% +$2,203
politics 14% +$12,226
crypto 2% −$13
other 2% +$339
finance 0% +$125
tech 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $54 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $87 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $190 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $57 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $18 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $63 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $76 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $47 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $61 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +41.7% +28.2% 71% 20% -4.4%
≤30d 124 +17.2% +6.0% 68% 19% -5.7%
≤90d 124 +17.2% +6.0% 68% 19% -5.7%
all 124 +17.2% +6.0% 68% 19% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover182.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.0% 19% -5.7%
10% -4.1% 14% -14.8%
15% ← realistic here -13.4% 9% -23.0%
20% -21.9% 7% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,783.14 · official $12,783.14 (match) · 3500 history records