Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:25:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5C 0x5cca…6633 crypto 121 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$85 (+3%) realized +$59 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate65%75W / 40L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$353now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$68
14 days−$38
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$17
crypto 29% +$93
other 12% +$25
politics 9% −$54
finance 9% +$12
culture 2% +$8
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -7.4% -16.2% 43% 14% -16.8%
≤30d 55 +3.9% -6.0% 49% 16% -10.0%
≤90d 115 +5.8% -4.3% 65% 27% -8.3%
all 115 +5.8% -4.3% 65% 27% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 27% -8.3%
10% -13.5% 18% -17.1%
15% -21.8% 14% -25.1%
20% -29.5% 9% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$353
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses75 / 40
Open positions6
Markets (closed)115 / 121
History coverage60d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? No 86¢ 96¢ $207 $231 +$23 (+11%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 83¢ 94¢ $38 $42 +$5 (+13%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 86¢ 86¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 89¢ 89¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 70¢ 62¢ $22 $19 −$3 (-12%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 85¢ 88¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 18 $26 −$13 -48%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 18 $101 +$10 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 16 $63 −$14 -22%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $24 +$1 +6%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 16 $16 −$2 -10%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $17 −$6 -33%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 15 $27 $0 -0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 15 $21 $0 +1%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? Jun 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? Jun 15 $13 $0 -0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Jun 15 $28 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $9 +$3 +36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $70 +$10 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $26 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $110 −$47 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $26 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $18 −$9 -50%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $44 +$7 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? Jun 14 $101 +$10 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $43 −$20 -48%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 13 $27 +$2 +8%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 09 $1 $0 -3%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $8 +$1 +8%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 07 $30 +$1 +3%
Will New Zealand win? Jun 07 $35 +$6 +17%
Will England win? Jun 05 $19 +$8 +44%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 05 $20 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 05 $19 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 05 $20 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 05 $39 $0 -1%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 05 $23 −$2 -8%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 05 $19 −$2 -11%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 05 $1 $0 -4%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 05 $44 $0 -0%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 04 $6 +$18 +304%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $8 +$1 +7%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $6 −$1 -24%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? Jun 01 $43 +$6 +14%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $9 $0 +2%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $16 +$2 +12%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 31 $34 −$21 -63%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $62 +$5 +9%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $8 +$1 +8%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president May 31 $45 $0 -0%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $9 $0 -0%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $9 $0 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $9 $0 -0%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $9 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $57 +$4 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 86¢ $6 1m
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 86¢ $8 2m
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 86¢ $7 2m
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 86¢ $8 5m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 46¢ $14 44m
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 89¢ $27 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 97¢ $111 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $33 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? BUY No 85¢ $70 2d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $25 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL No 49¢ $6 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? BUY No 87¢ $69 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? BUY No 87¢ $69 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 40¢ $11 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr SELL No 97¢ $13 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL No 96¢ $8 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? SELL No 100¢ $13 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? SELL No 100¢ $13 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? SELL No 100¢ $13 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? BUY No 100¢ $13 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? BUY No 100¢ $13 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? BUY No 100¢ $13 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr BUY No 97¢ $13 2d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $11 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY No 95¢ $8 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 60¢ $8 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 58¢ $3 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 58¢ $3 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 59¢ $8 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? SELL No 99¢ $14 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $352.60 · official $352.72 (match) · 304 history records