Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:19:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5C 0x5cc9…8dd3 crypto 143 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$268 (+13%) realized +$268 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate64%92W / 51L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$108
7 days+$108
14 days+$118
30 days+$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$150
other 3% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -12.9% -21.2% 48% 46% -4.0%
≤30d 86 -10.9% -19.4% 49% 48% -3.6%
≤90d 143 -0.8% -10.3% 64% 51% -3.5%
all 143 -0.8% -10.3% 64% 51% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 51% -3.5%
10% -18.9% 38% -12.8%
15% -26.7% 28% -21.2%
20% -33.9% 20% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$15 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$268
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses92 / 51
Open positions0
Markets (closed)143 / 143
History coverage80d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 143 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $77 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $78 −$76 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $103 +$50 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $98 +$51 +52%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $43 +$108 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $64 +$22 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $78 +$72 +93%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$77 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$107 +258%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $208 +$142 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$4 +57%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$4 +66%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$3 +43%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +65%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +129%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +101%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +208%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +19%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +25%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$3 +60%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +102%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $78 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $103 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $98 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $96 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $43 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $86 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $64 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $78 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $101 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $63 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $41 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $88 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $42 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $114 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $21 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $12 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $7 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $6 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $7 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $8 18h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $8 18h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 18h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 400 history records