Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:17:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5cc9…bfbc weather 214 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$263 (+2%) realized +$273 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate75%156W / 52L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$290now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$548
7 days−$188
14 days+$45
30 days+$189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 87% +$69
world 11% +$177
politics 2% −$82
other 0% −$5
tech 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 -2.7% -12.0% 78% 33% -12.5%
≤30d 197 -2.8% -12.1% 77% 32% -8.2%
≤90d 208 -3.5% -12.7% 75% 32% -8.3%
all 208 -3.5% -12.7% 75% 32% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 32% -8.3%
10% -21.1% 13% -17.1%
15% -28.7% 4% -25.1%
20% -35.7% 1% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$18 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$290
Realized+$273
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses156 / 52
Open positions6
Markets (closed)208 / 214
History coverage56d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 208 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 16? No 94¢ 97¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? No 95¢ 96¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? No 96¢ 95¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 16? No 91¢ 86¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? No 71¢ 64¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? No 91¢ 82¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $51 −$19 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$6 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$7 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$5 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 −$13 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $51 +$12 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 15 $50 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $51 +$15 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 15 $50 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 11? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 10? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 7? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$6 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $50 −$10 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 14 $50 −$50 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 14 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 13? Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$10 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $51 +$14 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$12 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $49 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $50 +$7 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 −$3 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $50 +$7 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? Jun 13 $50 +$11 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? SELL No 52¢ $32 22m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $50 56m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $50 57m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 71¢ $51 59m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 79¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? SELL No 65¢ $38 15h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? SELL No 85¢ $62 16h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 85¢ $50 17h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 68¢ $51 19h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $50 25h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $50 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $50 25h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL No 74¢ $40 35h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 76¢ $51 36h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 88¢ $50 36h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $50 36h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $50 36h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $50 37h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 89¢ $50 37h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? SELL No 95¢ $50 43h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $50 43h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $50 43h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $50 43h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $50 43h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $50 43h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 98¢ $51 45h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $289.93 · official $290.01 (match) · 460 history records