Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:11:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5C 0x5cc6…f0f8 sports 255 markets active 2h ago coverage 338d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16,988 (-12%) realized −$16,958 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate42%107W / 146L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$556per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$941now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$8,046
other 17% −$7,335
crypto 3% +$334
politics 2% −$363
tech 1% −$1,300
world 1% −$174
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +0.5% -9.1% 19% 19% -9.7%
≤30d 33 +2.6% -7.1% 21% 21% -3.9%
≤90d 33 +2.6% -7.1% 21% 21% -3.9%
all 253 -14.6% -22.8% 42% 34% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.8% 34% -20.6%
10% -30.2% 32% -28.2%
15% -36.9% 28% -35.1%
20% -43.1% 25% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$279 vs −$320 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

338d coverage
Net worth$941
Realized−$16,958
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses107 / 146
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)253 / 255
History coverage338d
Avg bet$556
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 253 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $971 $941 −$30 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 75 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $7 $0 -4%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 24 $16 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$9 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$21 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 24 $71 −$1 -1%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 +$33 +650%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$19 +365%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$45 +874%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 03 $59 +$101 +172%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $76 −$75 -98%
Nets vs. Kings Mar 22 $566 −$566 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main Mar 22 $150 +$64 +43%
UFC Fight Night: Michael Page vs. Sam Patterson (Welterweight, Main Ca Mar 22 $150 +$81 +54%
UFC Fight Night: Roman Dolidze vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (Middleweigh Mar 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Mar 18 $45 +$16 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 17 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? Mar 12 $201 −$201 -100%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $997 −$997 -100%
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Jan 31 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Diego Lopes win by KO or TKO? Jan 31 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 23 $136 −$136 -100%
Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2025? Dec 23 $303 −$167 -55%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Dec 20 $1,232 −$1,232 -100%
Will Trump admin release any Epstein files on December 19? Dec 19 $350 −$350 -100%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on December Dec 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Paul vs Joshua not occur by January 31? Dec 08 $19 −$19 -100%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13? Dec 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $993 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND W BUY 11¢ $51 2d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $7 2d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $34 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $23 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $940.94 · official $940.94 (match) · 511 history records