Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:31:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5cc6…4593 sports 112 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$43 (+1%) realized +$77 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate58%64W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day28.9pace
Fees−$146est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$270
7 days−$187
14 days−$268
30 days−$268
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$236
other 4% −$81
crypto 1% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -4.4% -13.5% 61% 56% -16.0%
≤30d 111 -2.3% -11.6% 58% 52% -12.7%
≤90d 111 -2.3% -11.6% 58% 52% -12.7%
all 111 -2.3% -11.6% 58% 52% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 52% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 48% -21.0%
15% -27.8% 32% -28.7%
20% -34.8% 23% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$49 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$77
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses64 / 47
Est. fees paid−$146
Open positions1
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage14d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day28.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 17¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$7 -24%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $132 −$131 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $62 −$62 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $64 −$44 -69%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $114 +$53 +46%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $78 −$78 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $56 −$56 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $62 +$18 +29%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $41 +$37 +90%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $67 +$23 +35%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $13 +$10 +76%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $67 +$16 +24%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $35 +$15 +42%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $51 +$44 +86%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $53 +$31 +58%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $39 +$55 +142%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $63 +$30 +47%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $56 +$34 +60%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $53 +$35 +66%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $64 +$17 +26%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $25 −$12 -48%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $13 +$19 +143%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $104 +$20 +20%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $53 −$37 -71%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $66 +$15 +22%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $59 +$22 +37%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $66 +$32 +48%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $68 +$19 +28%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $35 −$23 -67%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $238 −$84 -35%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $176 +$14 +8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $73 +$19 +26%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $73 −$72 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $67 +$4 +6%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $43 +$27 +63%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $135 +$29 +21%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $88 +$39 +45%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $64 +$16 +24%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $144 +$43 +30%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $39 −$23 -60%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $175 −$174 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $121 +$8 +6%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $34 +$22 +64%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $36 −$36 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 2 Winner SELL Nightblood Gaming 27¢ $4 25m
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 2 Winner BUY Nightblood Gaming 22¢ $1 27m
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 2 Winner BUY Nightblood Gaming 22¢ $0 27m
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 2 Winner BUY Nightblood Gaming 22¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $11 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $6 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $6 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $20 40m
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 66¢ $67 47m
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 65¢ $66 47m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 62¢ $6 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 62¢ $7 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 62¢ $45 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 62¢ $2 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 62¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 17¢ $34 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 80¢ $159 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 10¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 10¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 10¢ $9 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 10¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 10¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 10¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 10¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 65¢ $41 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.10 · official $0.10 (match) · 398 history records