Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:27:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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5C 0x5cc5…b83a crypto 237 markets active 11h ago coverage 107d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 106d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$151,753 (+202%) realized +$151,916 · open −$163
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%123W / 112L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$316per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 107d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% +$8,562
other 18% +$6,304
tech 7% +$928
sports 3% −$795
world 1% −$635
finance 0% +$4
economics 0% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +310.7% +271.6% 86% 86% +28.4%
≤30d 59 +27.0% +14.9% 39% 39% -12.1%
≤90d 91 +8.8% -1.6% 41% 36% -9.9%
all 235 +23.8% +12.0% 52% 49% +8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.0% 49% +8.6%
10% ← realistic here +1.3% 46% -1.8%
15% -8.5% 41% -11.3%
20% -17.4% 39% -20.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +26% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
12.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$316 vs −$220 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized+$151,916
Unrealized−$163
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses123 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions3
Markets (closed)235 / 237
History coverage107d ⚠
Avg bet$316
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 235 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? No 40¢ 92¢ $37 $86 +$49 (+131%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $95 $2 −$93 (-98%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $120 $1 −$119 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $223 +$58 +26%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $29 +$25 +89%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 23 $1,431 +$445 +31%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $875 +$1,005 +115%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $650 +$350 +54%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $670 +$330 +49%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $425 −$420 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $689 +$568 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $1,530 −$1,530 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $275 +$225 +82%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $660 +$340 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $344 +$256 +74%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $316 −$135 -43%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $114 −$102 -89%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $194 −$140 -72%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $794 +$1,204 +152%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $141 −$139 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $537 −$537 -100%
Sweden to win the second half? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +257%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $620 +$370 +60%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,055 +$748 +71%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $576 +$663 +115%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,354 −$1,333 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $454 −$439 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $480 +$507 +106%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,095 −$1,080 -99%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $151 +$1,745 +1153%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $555 +$1,946 +351%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $893 −$407 -46%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 11 $220 −$220 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$48 +92%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 11 $987 −$987 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,810 +$929 +51%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$57 +110%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $124 +$96 +78%
Solana Up or Down - April 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 29 $9 −$9 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 2, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 29, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 29 $74 −$74 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 11? May 29 $220 −$220 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 12? May 29 $250 −$250 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 13? May 29 $280 −$280 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 2, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET May 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 9? May 29 $470 −$470 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 8? May 29 $490 −$490 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 10h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 10h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 10h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $30 10h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $29 10h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 79¢ $223 10h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $1,436 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $1,880 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $875 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $650 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $215 6d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $210 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $76 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $255 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $320 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $6 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.33 · official $89.33 (match) · 3500 history records