Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:04:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5C 0x5cc3…d9c5 other 105 markets active 3d ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$58 (+0%) realized +$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate12%13W / 91L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$7
politics 33% −$6
sports 11% +$70
crypto 5% −$1
economics 4% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 94 +0.3% -9.2% 7% 4% -9.3%
all 104 -0.5% -10.0% 12% 7% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 7% -9.2%
10% -18.6% 7% -17.9%
15% -26.5% 4% -25.8%
20% -33.7% 4% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×13.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses13 / 91
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)104 / 105
History coverage109d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $24 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $166 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $18 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $125 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $283 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $276 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 21 $131 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $149 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $133 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $159 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 18 $152 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $144 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 14 $129 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $117 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 12 $117 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 11 $159 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $127 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $283 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 10 $164 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $160 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 29 $138 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $159 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $154 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $162 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $238 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $373 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $293 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $259 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $154 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $276 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $254 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $172 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 18 $146 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $155 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $157 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $135 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $135 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $137 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $170 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $174 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $132 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 14 $124 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $142 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $316 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $135 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 14 $148 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $153 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $337 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $242 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $24 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $24 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 3d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 5d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 9d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $22 9d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $22 10d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $18 11d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $18 17d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $144 18d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $144 23d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $125 23d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $125 23d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $133 25d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $133 26d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $150 26d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $150 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $131 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $131 27d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $149 27d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $149 28d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $133 28d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $133 29d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 29d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 29d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $152 29d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $152 30d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $144 31d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $144 34d
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio SELL No 100¢ $129 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.99 · official $23.99 (match) · 305 history records