Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:26:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

5C 0x5cc0…895d sports 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 227d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$1,057 (-24%) realized −$1,057 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip

Net edge-25%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate43%9W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$191per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$41est.

Kalshi-fit70%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$349

7 days+$391

14 days+$391

30 days+$391

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)-24.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	-3.3%	-12.5%	53%	47%	+4.1%
≤30d	17	-3.3%	-12.5%	53%	47%	+4.1%
≤90d	17	-3.3%	-12.5%	53%	47%	+4.1%
all	21	-17.0%	-24.9%	43%	38%	-32.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-24.9%	38%	-32.4%
10%	-32.1%	38%	-38.9%
15%	-38.6%	38%	-44.8%
20%	-44.6%	29%	-50.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 33% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

11% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -17% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -44% → late +7% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$139 vs −$196 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.53 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$1,057

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)43%

Wins / losses9 / 12

Est. fees paid−$41

Open positions0

Markets (closed)21 / 23

History coverage227d

Avg bet$191

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 21 Trades

no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	Jun 17	$203	+$2	+1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$203	−$119	-59%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$102	+$168	+165%
Spread: France (-1.5)	Jun 16	$306	+$416	+136%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 16	$95	−$94	-98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$203	+$89	+44%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	Jun 15	$202	+$110	+54%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$190	−$188	-99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 15	$203	−$200	-99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 15	$203	−$17	-8%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$203	+$182	+90%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$266	+$169	+64%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$51	−$50	-97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$202	+$115	+57%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$128	−$126	-99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$70	−$68	-98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$5	+$2	+42%
Will Portugal win on 2025-11-13?	Nov 13	$326	−$318	-98%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)	Nov 09	$100	−$100	-100%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025?	Nov 08	$56	−$1	-2%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5)	Nov 02	$1,070	−$1,070	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	SELL Jordan	56¢	$205	1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	42¢	$79	1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	BUY Jordan	54¢	$203	6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	52¢	$203	6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	37¢	$102	7h
Spread: France (-1.5)	SELL France	87¢	$283	7h
Spread: France (-1.5)	SELL France	86¢	$93	7h
Spread: France (-1.5)	SELL France	80¢	$346	7h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	45¢	$95	8h
Spread: France (-1.5)	BUY France	28¢	$102	8h
Spread: France (-1.5)	BUY France	39¢	$204	9h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	82¢	$291	28h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	56¢	$203	31h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	SELL Egypt	100¢	$312	31h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	62¢	$190	31h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	54¢	$203	34h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	BUY Egypt	64¢	$101	34h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	BUY Egypt	64¢	$101	34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	51¢	$186	35h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	54¢	$203	36h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Sweden (-1.5)	BUY	55¢	$5	2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	52¢	$203	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	77¢	$434	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	46¢	$266	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	6¢	$51	2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	58¢	$128	3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	63¢	$202	3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	17¢	$70	3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Will Sc	BUY	24¢	$9	3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	70¢	$5	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records