Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:16:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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5C 0x5cbd…4784 crypto 1714 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d only
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$21 (+1%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate77%1497W / 447L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day62.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$583
7 days−$585
14 days−$587
30 days−$585
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$15
other 0% $0
world 0% $0
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 733 -31.2% -37.7% 60% 24% -31.2%
≤30d 1843 -12.7% -21.0% 76% 41% -19.6%
≤90d 1944 -12.1% -20.4% 77% 42% -19.2%
all 1944 -12.1% -20.4% 77% 42% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.4% 42% -19.2%
10% ← realistic here -28.1% 4% -27.0%
15% -35.0% 0% -34.0%
20% -41.4% 0% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses1497 / 447
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1944 / 1714
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day62.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1944 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? No 92¢ 92¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 431 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1594%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 2, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1034%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$4 -1493%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -2672%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$4 -2767%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -832%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -681%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -2985%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1316%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -816%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -863%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -625%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$4 -3894%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -874%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -1153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -1864%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -603%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY No 92¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.36 · official $5.36 (match) · 3500 history records