Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:10:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5C 0x5cb5…e1e1 sports 541 markets active 0h ago coverage 856d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$970 (+1%) realized +$930 · open +$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate88%476W / 62L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$295per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$458est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2,460now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days+$254
14 days+$210
30 days+$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$244
politics 3% +$234
other 2% +$222
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -4.1% -13.2% 90% 10% -3.0%
≤30d 88 -3.6% -12.8% 83% 25% -9.4%
≤90d 505 -0.4% -9.9% 88% 24% -9.3%
all 538 -0.4% -9.9% 88% 23% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 23% -9.1%
10% -18.5% 8% -17.8%
15% -26.4% 3% -25.8%
20% -33.6% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$133 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

856d coverage
Net worth$2,460
Realized+$930
Unrealized+$40
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses476 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$458
Open positions3
Markets (closed)538 / 541
History coverage856d
Avg bet$295
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 538 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner T1 95¢ 100¢ $1,431 $1,499 +$68 (+5%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner T1 89¢ 93¢ $919 $961 +$41 (+4%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Team Liquid 69¢ 0¢ $69 $0 −$69 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $145 +$5 +3%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $97 +$3 +3%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $99 +$1 +1%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $715 +$74 +10%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $79 +$3 +4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $187 +$6 +3%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $188 +$12 +6%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $25 +$5 +20%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,003 +$158 +8%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $257 −$205 -80%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $186 +$14 +7%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $482 +$18 +4%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $181 +$19 +11%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $92 +$8 +8%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $273 +$27 +10%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $79 +$21 +26%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $253 −$147 -58%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $474 +$9 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $196 +$4 +2%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $240 +$160 +67%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $67 +$33 +50%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $68 −$67 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $391 +$9 +2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $127 +$73 +57%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $332 +$31 +9%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $36 −$36 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $74 +$6 +8%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $441 +$9 +2%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $341 +$35 +10%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $392 +$8 +2%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $270 −$270 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $713 +$62 +9%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $339 +$61 +18%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $341 −$93 -27%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $480 +$20 +4%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $77 −$77 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $188 +$12 +6%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $138 +$46 +33%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $98 +$2 +2%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $188 +$12 +6%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $235 +$15 +6%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $196 +$4 +2%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $229 +$34 +15%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $81 +$19 +23%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $198 +$2 +1%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $271 +$16 +6%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $182 +$18 +10%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $1,336 +$38 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 91¢ $5 6m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 91¢ $45 6m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 91¢ $18 6m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 91¢ $68 6m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 91¢ $46 6m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 91¢ $46 6m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 91¢ $46 6m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 89¢ $1,190 11m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 69¢ $3 55m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 69¢ $66 55m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 98¢ $491 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 96¢ $481 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 92¢ $461 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $96 8h
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $49 8h
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY Dplus KIA 57¢ $13 16h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 97¢ $62 18h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 97¢ $13 18h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 97¢ $9 18h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 97¢ $13 18h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 97¢ $1 18h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 24h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 95¢ $370 33h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $85 34h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $259 34h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 96¢ $79 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 98¢ $98 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $65 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $30 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $94 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,459.99 · official $2,459.99 (match) · 2404 history records