Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:14:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5C 0x5cb5…def4 sports 162 markets active 1h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$836 (+3%) realized +$486 · open +$350
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate59%93W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$251est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$6,072now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days+$368
14 days+$473
30 days+$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$458
politics 17% +$243
other 5% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +21.4% +9.8% 100% 50% +20.4%
≤30d 59 -5.8% -14.7% 61% 44% -6.3%
≤90d 151 -0.7% -10.2% 60% 49% -5.5%
all 157 -1.5% -10.9% 59% 49% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 49% -6.0%
10% -19.4% 40% -15.0%
15% -27.2% 34% -23.2%
20% -34.3% 24% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$81 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$6,072
Realized+$486
Unrealized+$350
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses93 / 64
Est. fees paid−$251
Open positions5
Markets (closed)157 / 162
History coverage230d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 84¢ 87¢ $3,492 $3,627 +$135 (+4%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 52¢ 56¢ $1,137 $1,246 +$109 (+10%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner T1 73¢ 100¢ $363 $496 +$134 (+37%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $425 $427 +$2 (+1%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner T1 61¢ 55¢ $305 $275 −$30 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $200 +$10 +5%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 28 $304 +$62 +20%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $100 +$2 +2%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $505 +$293 +58%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $82 −$47 -58%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 16 $279 −$9 -3%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $203 +$162 +80%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $200 +$8 +4%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$77 +76%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$2 +32%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $202 −$68 -34%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$43 +43%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $404 −$264 -65%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $103 −$102 -99%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $302 +$169 +56%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $101 +$75 +74%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $200 +$14 +7%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $101 +$48 +48%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $152 +$79 +52%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $308 −$148 -48%
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) Jun 10 $107 +$93 +86%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $203 +$161 +79%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $49 −$48 -99%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $101 −$50 -49%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $101 +$36 +36%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs The Ruddy Sack (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Jun 08 $171 −$170 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 08 $200 +$12 +6%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $100 −$21 -21%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $202 +$80 +40%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $201 +$32 +16%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $302 −$64 -21%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $101 −$45 -44%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $200 +$12 +6%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 07 $201 −$128 -64%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 06 $203 −$145 -72%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $401 +$45 +11%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $381 −$28 -7%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $201 +$57 +28%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $101 +$25 +25%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $201 +$23 +12%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit Jun 02 $265 −$85 -32%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $68 +$19 +27%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $119 −$119 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $200 +$6 +3%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $200 +$4 +2%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 73¢ $366 50m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 25¢ $44 51m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 56¢ $101 59m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 61¢ $309 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 85¢ $30 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 85¢ $11 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 85¢ $85 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 85¢ $11 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 85¢ $11 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 85¢ $6 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 85¢ $11 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 85¢ $11 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 85¢ $11 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 85¢ $11 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 85¢ $11 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,071.77 · official $6,071.99 (match) · 479 history records