Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:25:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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5C 0x5cb3…04f1 crypto 538 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$12 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%519W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day30.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$52
14 days−$42
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$40
other 3% +$4
finance 2% +$3
politics 2% +$5
sports 1% +$2
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 214 -1.8% -11.2% 95% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 536 -0.3% -9.8% 97% 1% -9.8%
≤90d 536 -0.3% -9.8% 97% 1% -9.8%
all 536 -0.3% -9.8% 97% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 1% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$14 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses519 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)536 / 538
History coverage19d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day30.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 536 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? No 99¢ 94¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $69 on June 24? Jun 24 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $14 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $14 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $15 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $14 +$1 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 24 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $14 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $27 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $29 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $15 $0 +1%
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 24 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 24 $19 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 24 $19 +$2 +10%
Will Anthony Constantino be the Republican nominee for NY-21? Jun 24 $5 $0 +2%
Will Quincy Bareebe be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 24 $20 $0 +1%
Will Rushern Baker III be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 24 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Robert Smullen be the Republican nominee for NY-21? Jun 24 $20 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 24 $14 +$1 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 24 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 24 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 24 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 24 $14 +$2 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 24 $15 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $14 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $69 on June 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $14 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $12 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.93 · official $33.51 (match) · 1086 history records