Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:48:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5C 0x5cb2…f5a4 other 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$183 (+15%) realized +$182 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate77%33W / 10L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$39
14 days+$142
30 days+$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$154
world 26% +$19
sports 6% +$16
politics 2% −$11
weather 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -7.2% -16.0% 68% 58% -2.8%
≤30d 33 -3.8% -12.9% 70% 61% +9.8%
≤90d 33 -3.8% -12.9% 70% 61% +9.8%
all 43 +0.6% -9.0% 77% 58% +6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 58% +6.1%
10% -17.7% 33% -4.0%
15% -25.7% 26% -13.3%
20% -33.0% 16% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.71 per $1 lost it wins $2.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized+$182
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses33 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)43 / 48
History coverage162d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 46¢ 48¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 $0 +1%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 +$16 +79%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$10 +50%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $30 +$7 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $30 +$23 +76%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 +$4 +19%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 25 $20 +$4 +21%
Germany to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 25 $20 +$9 +46%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 25 $1 $0 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$14 +134%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 +$9 +17%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 18? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during meetings with Slovak Prime Minister? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 5+ times during meetings with Slovak Prime Mi Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 22 $30 −$30 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $132 +$102 +77%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +20%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Mar 07 $100 +$2 +2%
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $50 +$2 +4%
Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, Feb 28 $50 +$15 +30%
Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? Feb 08 $1 $0 +11%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $47 +$8 +18%
Will anyone audibly fart during Trump's WEF 2026 speech? Jan 25 $10 $0 +4%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 25 $80 +$7 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or higher on January 18 Jan 18 $1 +$1 +59%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during meetings with Jan 18 $1 $0 +11%
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? Jan 18 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 7h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 13h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 13h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 13h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 13h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 13h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 13h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $20 14h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 14h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $1 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $20 3d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $20 3d
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Curaçao? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 3d
Germany to score first vs. Ecuador? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 4d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $30 4d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $30 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.95 · official $160.96 (match) · 93 history records