Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:26:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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5C 0x5cb2…82e5 sports 402 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d only
✗ bot/MM pace (236 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$743 (-7%) realized −$706 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate41%178W / 253L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day236.1pace
Fees−$119est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$350
14 days−$719
30 days−$719
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$131
other 19% −$66
weather 6% −$338
world 2% −$165
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (236 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -44.7% -50.0% 29% 23% -29.5%
≤30d 431 -12.6% -20.9% 41% 32% -15.5%
≤90d 431 -12.6% -20.9% 41% 32% -15.5%
all 431 -12.6% -20.9% 41% 32% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover236.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.9% 32% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -28.5% 25% -23.6%
15% -35.4% 18% -30.9%
20% -41.7% 13% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized−$706
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses178 / 253
Est. fees paid−$119
Open positions2
Markets (closed)431 / 402
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$28
Trades / day236.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 431 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 88¢ 86¢ $114 $112 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 42¢ 22¢ $72 $37 −$35 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 116 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 13.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Albania vs. Israel: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will US Yacoub El Mansour win on 2026-06-03? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 201.5 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5) Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Valencia vs. Bilbao Basket: O/U 176.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will RS Berkane win on 2026-06-03? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will RCA Zemamra win on 2026-06-03? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 17 $0 −$1 -369%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
RCA Zemamra vs. US Yacoub El Mansour: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $132 +$16 +12%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $56 +$13 +24%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $172 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $20 −$17 -87%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $188 −$148 -78%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 15 $110 −$9 -8%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $17 −$15 -90%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $3 $0 -4%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $18 −$15 -84%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5) Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $20 +$2 +9%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $17 −$7 -44%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $17 $0 -0%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $17 +$5 +30%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) Jun 12 $33 −$25 -78%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 12 $10 −$1 -9%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Jun 12 $15 −$4 -24%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 12 $10 +$16 +163%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 87¢ $5 0m
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 87¢ $5 19m
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 87¢ $5 20m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $37 35m
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 88¢ $5 40m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $37 42m
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 88¢ $5 44m
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 88¢ $5 50m
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 88¢ $5 1h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 88¢ $5 1h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 88¢ $5 1h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 88¢ $5 1h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 88¢ $5 1h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 88¢ $5 2h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 88¢ $5 2h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 88¢ $5 2h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 88¢ $5 2h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 88¢ $5 2h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 88¢ $5 2h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 87¢ $5 2h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 87¢ $5 2h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 87¢ $5 2h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 87¢ $5 2h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 87¢ $5 2h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 87¢ $5 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 89¢ $5 20h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 89¢ $5 20h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 89¢ $5 20h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 89¢ $17 20h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 89¢ $17 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.49 · official $149.50 (match) · 3500 history records