Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:50:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5cac…f629 other 118 markets active 2d ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-6%) realized −$3 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%8W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day17.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$30
sports 47% +$20
world 2% −$1
politics 1% $0
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +10.4% -0.1% 20% 20% +11.9%
≤30d 59 -14.8% -22.9% 14% 14% -17.8%
≤90d 59 -14.8% -22.9% 14% 14% -17.8%
all 59 -14.8% -22.9% 14% 14% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 14% -17.8%
10% -30.3% 14% -25.7%
15% -37.0% 14% -32.9%
20% -43.2% 14% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×5.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses8 / 51
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions59
Markets (closed)59 / 118
History coverage7d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 59 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 44¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Yes 20¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+27%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 36¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 35¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 36¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 +$3 +325%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$4 +365%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$10 +982%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$3 +291%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 +$3 +276%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$10 +474%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$13 +1290%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +226%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 20¢ $1 39h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 6d
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 6d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6d
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 6d
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 6d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 6d
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 6d
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 6d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 6d
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 6d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 6d
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 6d
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 6d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 6d
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 6d
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 6d
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 6d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 6d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 6d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.52 · official $53.52 (match) · 133 history records