trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +2.8% | -7.0% | 67% | 33% | -10.9% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +9.2% | -1.2% | 67% | 50% | -3.4% |
| ≤90d | 14 | -33.9% | -40.2% | 36% | 29% | -32.6% |
| all | 14 | -33.9% | -40.2% | 36% | 29% | -32.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -40.2% | 29% | -32.6% |
| 10% | -45.9% | 21% | -39.0% |
| 15% | -51.1% | 14% | -44.9% |
| 20% | -55.9% | 14% | -50.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 15¢ | $95 | $91 | −$3 (-4%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 18¢ | 19¢ | $70 | $74 | +$4 (+6%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 14¢ | $60 | $50 | −$10 (-17%) |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 17¢ | 15¢ | $20 | $18 | −$2 (-9%) |
| Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 3¢ | $24 | $13 | −$11 (-46%) |
| Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-98%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 24 | $51 | −$5 | -10% |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Jun 24 | $20 | +$3 | +17% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jun 24 | $21 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 14 | $5 | +$1 | +28% |
| Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Jun 08 | $10 | −$5 | -49% |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Jun 08 | $20 | +$14 | +67% |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? | May 23 | $5 | −$5 | -96% |
| Will "Data Center" be said 5+ times during the next episode of the All | May 23 | $2 | +$4 | +171% |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? | May 19 | $22 | −$22 | -99% |
| Will Trump say "Cut rate" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony? | May 19 | $2 | −$2 | -98% |
| Will Trump say "Unemployment" 5+ times during Kevin Warsh's swearing-i | May 19 | $2 | −$2 | -99% |
| Will "Middle East" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podca | May 19 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs | May 19 | $20 | −$20 | -99% |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | May 19 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |