Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:47:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5C
0x5ca9…c4d1
world · 87 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$13 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$13 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Net worth$13
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses29 / 57
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)86 / 87
History coverage330d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 1 History 86 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 17¢ 17¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $27 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $27 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $16 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $27 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 04 $13 −$2 -13%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 02 $2 $0 -13%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $26 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $29 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $55 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $26 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $30 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $65 −$6 -10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $60 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $31 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $13 +$2 +13%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $58 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $63 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $29 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $29 +$2 +9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $2 $0 -4%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 18 $28 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 17 $53 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $1 $0 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $12 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $28 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $3 +$1 +20%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $58 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $44 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $123 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $28 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $56 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $31 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $28 $0 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $55 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 15 $25 $0 +0%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 11 $24 $0 +1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $27 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $54 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $79 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 08 $1 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 33% −$4
other 24% $0
politics 19% $0
sports 14% +$1
economics 4% $0
crypto 4% −$9
finance 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $6 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $7 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $27 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $27 5h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $27 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $27 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $16 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $21 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $6 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $27 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $11 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $26 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $26 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $29 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $29 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $26 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $26 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $26 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $26 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $4 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $22 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $5 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $22 13d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $28 13d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $28 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 29 +0.2% -9.3% 38% 7% -10.0%
≤90d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 3% -10.1%
all 86 -0.2% -9.7% 34% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 3% -10.0%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.26 · official $13.26 (match) · 307 history records