Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:25:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5ca8…ed52 other 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$267 (-18%) realized −$143 · open −$124
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate23%11W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day23.7pace
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$1,026now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$103
7 days−$168
14 days−$173
30 days−$173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$279
crypto 4% −$15
weather 0% −$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-55.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -49.6% -54.4% 24% 11% -76.6%
≤30d 47 -50.6% -55.3% 23% 11% -77.1%
≤90d 47 -50.6% -55.3% 23% 11% -77.1%
all 47 -50.6% -55.3% 23% 11% -77.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -55.3% 11% -77.1%
10% ← realistic here -59.6% 9% -79.3%
15% -63.5% 6% -81.3%
20% -67.1% 6% -83.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 60% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -75% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -75% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -76% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$1,026
Realized−$143
Unrealized−$124
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses11 / 36
Open positions12
Markets (closed)47 / 59
History coverage8d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day23.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 58¢ 70¢ $671 $805 +$134 (+20%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 31¢ 22¢ $220 $157 −$63 (-29%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 34¢ 6¢ $185 $30 −$155 (-84%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 24¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+31%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 20¢ 14¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 21¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+84%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 22¢ 7¢ $17 $5 −$12 (-70%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 27¢ 2¢ $30 $2 −$28 (-94%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $75 −$54 -73%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $65 −$46 -71%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $3 +$3 +86%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $1 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $4 $0 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $27 −$26 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $17 −$16 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$2 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 45m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $228 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $387 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 15h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 15h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 15h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $26 15h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 15h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 15h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $41 15h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $24 15h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $174 15h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 24h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 24h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $9 24h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $137 24h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 40h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 40h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 40h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 40h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 40h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 40h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $9 45h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $9 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,025.95 · official $1,025.95 (match) · 187 history records